Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Wendell Carter Jr.Points28
- Jalen SuggsAssists9
- Desmond BaneRebounds7
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints51
- Brandon WilliamsAssists5
- Ryan NembhardRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game138–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter138–127
- Q44.2shot clock turnover138–127
- Q428.2AJ Johnson makes driving layup138–127
- Q429.5AJ Johnson offensive rebound138–125
- Q433.0John Poulakidas misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot138–125
- Q441.7Jett Howard makes 3-foot layup (Noah Penda assists)138–125
- Q449.3Noah Penda defensive rebound136–125
- Q449.3Ryan Nembhard misses running pullup jump shot136–125
- Q451.6Tyler Smith defensive rebound136–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:02Max Christie makes 26-foot running jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)ORL 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 27% → 32% +5DAL 27% → 32%+5 pts
- Q14:00Jamal Cain makes 23-foot running jump shot (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 25 – 20 DAL · ORL 72% → 78% +5ORL 72% → 78%+5 pts
- Q25:18Max Christie makes 28-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)ORL 53 – 53 DAL · DAL 27% → 34% +7DAL 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q24:58Tristan da Silva makes 25-foot three pointer (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 56 – 53 DAL · ORL 66% → 73% +7ORL 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q22:09Paolo Banchero makes 22-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 63 – 55 DAL · ORL 77% → 83% +6ORL 77% → 83%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -6.5
- ML ORL -270 / DAL +220
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3.5
- ORL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- ORL: Elo 64.0%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- ORL -234
- DAL +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 123.0 – 116.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1344 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | −1 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +100 Elo | ORL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 67.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 113.424th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 119.123rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −5.724th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 108.629th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 114.018th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.7 | Pace | 103.44th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–822nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 14–2424th of 30 |
| 12th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150414th of 30 |
| 20th of 301467 | Elo rating | 134427th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–42 | 33–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–27 | 8–15 |
| Underdog | 15–15 | 25–28 |
| Overs–unders | 41–35 | 33–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 1–4 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.