Phoenix Suns at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints34
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Oso IghodaroRebounds10
Magic- Desmond BanePoints21
- Paolo BancheroAssists8
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–115
- Q40.0Suns offensive team rebound111–115
- Q40.0Dillon Brooks misses 26-foot three point jumper111–115
- Q41.1Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Oso Ighodaro111–115
- Q41.1Collin Gillespie enters the game for Khaman Maluach111–115
- Q41.1Suns Full timeout111–115
- Q41.1Tristan da Silva makes free throw 2 of 2111–115
- Q41.1Tristan da Silva makes free throw 1 of 2111–114
- Q41.1Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Jordan Goodwin111–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:43Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)PHX 100 – 103 ORL · ORL 52% → 68% +16ORL 52% → 68%+16 pts
- Q46:20Grayson Allen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 103 – 103 ORL · PHX 32% → 48% +16PHX 32% → 48%+16 pts
- Q45:26Dillon Brooks makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Devin Booker assists)PHX 107 – 105 ORL · PHX 49% → 61% +12PHX 49% → 61%+12 pts
- Q45:11Paolo Banchero makes 6-foot two point shot (Jalen Suggs assists)PHX 107 – 107 ORL · ORL 39% → 51% +12ORL 39% → 51%+12 pts
- Q44:42Desmond Bane makes 1-foot two point shot (Paolo Banchero assists)PHX 107 – 109 ORL · ORL 51% → 64% +13ORL 51% → 64%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -2.5
- ML PHX +110 / ORL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -0.5
- ORL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- ORL: Elo 48.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -119
- PHX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 111.5 – 114.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | −8 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +8 Elo | PHX 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 58.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 115.316th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 115.115th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.217th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 112.818th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 112.614th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.0 | Pace | 101.416th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 15th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 22–1413th of 30 |
| 7th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 14th of 301536 | Elo rating | 147319th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–29 | 33–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–13 | 18–27 |
| Underdog | 23–16 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders | 33–42 | 40–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–3 ORL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.