Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints36
- Collin GillespieAssists10
- Khaman MaluachRebounds11
Grizzlies- Tyler BurtonPoints17
- Walter Clayton Jr.Assists7
- DeJon JarreauRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–105
- Q40.1shot clock turnover131–105
- Q424.2Jahmai Mashack makes free throw 2 of 2131–105
- Q424.2Grizzlies offensive team rebound131–104
- Q424.2Jahmai Mashack misses free throw 1 of 2131–104
- Q424.2Rasheer Fleming shooting foul131–104
- Q432.0Jamaree Bouyea makes driving layup131–104
- Q447.6DeJon Jarreau out of bounds bad pass turnover129–104
- Q455.7Jamaree Bouyea makes driving layup (Koby Brea assists)129–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:29Tyler Burton makes 22-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)PHX 80 – 82 MEM · MEM 25% → 33% +9MEM 25% → 33%+9 pts
- Q31:44Jordan Goodwin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)PHX 86 – 86 MEM · PHX 59% → 70% +11PHX 59% → 70%+11 pts
- Q31:07Walter Clayton Jr. makes 25-foot three pointerPHX 88 – 89 MEM · MEM 24% → 34% +10MEM 24% → 34%+10 pts
- Q30.2Devin Booker makes 29-foot jump bank shot (Oso Ighodaro assists)PHX 91 – 89 MEM · PHX 65% → 76% +11PHX 65% → 76%+11 pts
- Q49:47Collin Gillespie makes 22-foot running jump shot (Jordan Goodwin assists)PHX 98 – 91 MEM · PHX 82% → 90% +8PHX 82% → 90%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -12.5
- ML PHX -700 / MEM +500
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -6
- PHX 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- PHX: Elo 71.9%, market 84.0%
- Fair odds
- PHX -525
- MEM +525 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 120.5 – 108.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | −51 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +163 Elo | PHX 71.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 78.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 77.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 84.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 115.117th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 119.224th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −4.021st of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 110.924th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 114.821st of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.0 | Pace | 103.54th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 15th of 3017–18 | Road vs home | 13–2325th of 30 |
| 5th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 16th of 301527 | Elo rating | 138622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–29 | 35–39 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–13 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 23–16 | 25–30 |
| Overs–unders | 32–42 | 36–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 3–6 MEM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Jan 7PHX 117 @ MEM 98Picked PHX 64%Hit
- Oct 29MEM 114 @ PHX 113Picked MEM 54%Hit
- Mar 10PHX 118 @ MEM 120Picked MEM 57%Hit
- Feb 25PHX 148 @ MEM 151Picked MEM 70%Hit
- Feb 11MEM 119 @ PHX 112Picked MEM 59%Hit
- Dec 31MEM 117 @ PHX 112Picked PHX 66%Miss
- Jan 7MEM 121 @ PHX 115Picked PHX 74%Miss
- Dec 2MEM 109 @ PHX 116Picked PHX 70%Hit