Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints32
- Jalen JohnsonAssists8
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds14
Magic- Jamal CainPoints17
- Jalen SuggsAssists9
- Paolo BancheroRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–101
- Q422.6Jamal Cain makes free throw 2 of 2130–101
- Q422.6Jamal Cain makes free throw 1 of 2130–100
- Q422.6Caleb Houstan personal foul130–99
- Q426.2Asa Newell makes dunk130–99
- Q426.2Asa Newell offensive rebound128–99
- Q429.2Mouhamed Gueye misses 25-foot three point jumper128–99
- Q438.3Caleb Houstan defensive rebound128–99
- Q441.1Jase Richardson misses free throw 2 of 2128–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:15CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 11 – 13 ORL · ATL 45% → 52% +7ATL 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q13:39Gabe Vincent makes 24-foot running jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 16 – 20 ORL · ATL 40% → 47% +7ATL 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q211:47Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 28 – 28 ORL · ATL 48% → 55% +7ATL 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q29:58Jonathan Kuminga makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)ATL 35 – 32 ORL · ATL 55% → 63% +7ATL 55% → 63%+7 pts
- Q28:16Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 27-foot three pointer (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 44 – 37 ORL · ATL 65% → 72% +7ATL 65% → 72%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML ATL -142 / ORL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4.5
- ATL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 67.2%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -129
- ORL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 119.0 – 116.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +54 | +17 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +125 Elo | ATL 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 115.315th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 115.114th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.317th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 112.414th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.3 | Pace | 101.515th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 11th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 23–1412th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 13th of 301564 | Elo rating | 148020th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–35 | 34–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–19 | 19–27 |
| Underdog | 21–16 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders | 38–38 | 41–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–3 ORL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.
- Mar 16ORL 112 @ ATL 124Picked ATL 58%Hit
- Nov 4ORL 112 @ ATL 127Picked ORL 60%Miss
- Oct 24ATL 111 @ ORL 107Picked ORL 66%Miss
- Apr 13ORL 105 @ ATL 117Picked ORL 60%Miss
- Apr 8ATL 112 @ ORL 119Picked ORL 64%Hit
- Feb 20ORL 114 @ ATL 108Picked ORL 53%Hit
- Feb 10ATL 112 @ ORL 106Picked ORL 68%Miss
- Feb 25ORL 92 @ ATL 109Picked ORL 56%Miss