Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints29
- Jaylen BrownAssists9
- Jaylen BrownRebounds10
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints20
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerAssists6
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–112
- Q417.3Max Shulga enters the game for Derrick White102–112
- Q417.3John Tonje enters the game for Jaylen Brown102–112
- Q417.3Jaylen Brown out of bounds bad pass turnover102–112
- Q427.1Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2102–112
- Q427.1Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2102–111
- Q427.1Jordan Walsh personal take foul102–110
- Q427.9Jalen Johnson defensive rebound102–110
- Q430.0Jaylen Brown misses free throw 3 of 3102–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:49Sam Hauser makes 24-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 52 – 49 ATL · BOS 45% → 54% +8BOS 45% → 54%+8 pts
- Q243.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)BOS 54 – 54 ATL · ATL 46% → 55% +9ATL 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q38:39Onyeka Okongwu makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)BOS 60 – 65 ATL · ATL 60% → 69% +9ATL 60% → 69%+9 pts
- Q38:18Luka Garza makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 63 – 65 ATL · BOS 31% → 40% +9BOS 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q38:00Onyeka Okongwu makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)BOS 63 – 68 ATL · ATL 60% → 69% +9ATL 60% → 69%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML BOS +120 / ATL -142
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -129
- BOS +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 111.5 – 114.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1675 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −31 | +42 | BOS: Missing Neemias Queta −23 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +29 Elo | ATL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.1 | Points scored | 118.36th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.8 | Points allowed | 116.418th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.3 | Margin | +1.813th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 113.913th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 112.213th of 30 |
| 30th of 3096.8 | Pace | 103.36th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–13 | Road vs home | 22–1616th of 30 |
| 28th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149423rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301675 | Elo rating | 155513th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−31 Elo- Neemias Queta sprained right thumb−23 Elo
Hawks
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–31 | 40–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–24 | 19–19 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 26–48 | 38–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–5 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
- Mar 27ATL 102 @ BOS 109Picked BOS 66%Hit
- Jan 28ATL 117 @ BOS 106Picked BOS 64%Miss
- Jan 17BOS 132 @ ATL 106Picked BOS 59%Hit
- Jan 18ATL 119 @ BOS 115Picked BOS 78%Miss
- Nov 12ATL 117 @ BOS 116Picked BOS 89%Miss
- Nov 4BOS 123 @ ATL 93Picked BOS 80%Hit
- Mar 28BOS 122 @ ATL 123Picked BOS 79%Miss
- Mar 25BOS 118 @ ATL 120Picked BOS 77%Miss