Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints32
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Neemias QuetaRebounds8
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints19
- Brandon MillerAssists4
- Brandon MillerRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–99
- Q413.2shot clock turnover114–99
- Q433.9Josh Green bad pass
turnover (John Tonje steals)114–99
- Q437.6Amari Williams bad pass
turnover (Josh Green steals)114–99
- Q449.1Liam McNeeley makes free throw 2 of 2114–99
- Q449.1Liam McNeeley makes free throw 1 of 2114–98
- Q449.1Max Shulga personal foul114–97
- Q449.1Liam McNeeley defensive rebound114–97
- Q450.2Charles Bassey misses free throw 2 of 2114–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:13Jayson Tatum makes 27-foot three pointerBOS 15 – 9 CHA · BOS 52% → 58% +7BOS 52% → 58%+7 pts
- Q15:33Sion James makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)BOS 15 – 12 CHA · CHA 41% → 48% +7CHA 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q11:41Coby White makes 22-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)BOS 21 – 19 CHA · CHA 43% → 50% +7CHA 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q211:24Baylor Scheierman makes 26-foot three pointer (Jordan Walsh assists)BOS 30 – 21 CHA · BOS 60% → 67% +7BOS 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q48:35LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 95 – 86 CHA · CHA 8% → 15% +7CHA 8% → 15%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -2.5
- ML BOS +114 / CHA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -2
- CHA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- CHA: Elo 57.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CHA -123
- BOS +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 107.0 – 109.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1659 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −26 | +88 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +49 Elo | CHA 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.1 | Points scored | 116.313th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.9 | Points allowed | 111.78th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.2 | Margin | +4.66th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 116.47th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 111.811th of 30 |
| 30th of 3096.9 | Pace | 99.523rd of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 4th of 3023–13 | Road vs home | 19–1820th of 30 |
| 27th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 148629th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301659 | Elo rating | 15988th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+88 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–31 | 46–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–24 | 19–11 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders | 26–47 | 29–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–2 CHA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Mar 4CHA 118 @ BOS 89Picked BOS 69%Miss
- Apr 13CHA 86 @ BOS 93Picked BOS 81%Hit
- Apr 11CHA 94 @ BOS 130Picked BOS 93%Hit
- Nov 2BOS 113 @ CHA 103Picked BOS 81%Hit
- Nov 1BOS 124 @ CHA 109Picked BOS 81%Hit
- Apr 12CHA 98 @ BOS 131Picked BOS 64%Hit
- Apr 1BOS 118 @ CHA 104Picked BOS 85%Hit
- Nov 20BOS 118 @ CHA 121Picked BOS 61%Miss