Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints29
- Jalen JohnsonAssists6
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds9
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints36
- Jayson TatumAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–109
- Q412.9Sam Hauser enters the game for Neemias Queta102–109
- Q412.9Celtics Full timeout102–109
- Q412.9Celtics Full timeout102–109
- Q417.7CJ McCollum makes free throw 2 of 2102–109
- Q417.7Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Jordan Walsh101–109
- Q417.7Payton Pritchard enters the game for Sam Hauser101–109
- Q417.7Hawks offensive team rebound101–109
- Q417.7CJ McCollum misses free throw 1 of 2101–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:54Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Derrick White assists)ATL 68 – 66 BOS · BOS 44% → 54% +10BOS 44% → 54%+10 pts
- Q37:25Payton Pritchard makes 29-foot three pointer (Derrick White assists)ATL 68 – 69 BOS · BOS 54% → 63% +10BOS 54% → 63%+10 pts
- Q35:49Payton Pritchard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Sam Hauser assists)ATL 70 – 72 BOS · BOS 56% → 66% +10BOS 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q329.5CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 82 – 85 BOS · ATL 21% → 30% +10ATL 21% → 30%+10 pts
- Q45:05CJ McCollum makes 23-foot three pointer (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)ATL 95 – 100 BOS · ATL 8% → 18% +10ATL 8% → 18%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -4.5
- ML ATL +180 / BOS -218
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3.5
- BOS 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 63.0%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -192
- ATL +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 109.5 – 114.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1653 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | +5 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +93 Elo | BOS 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 114.220th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 107.01st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +7.24th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 117.43rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 109.94th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.5 | Pace | 96.930th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–16 | Road vs home | 25–116th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 148628th of 30 |
| 12th of 301557 | Elo rating | 16533rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–33 | 41–31 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–18 | 28–24 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 37–36 | 26–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–4 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Jan 28ATL 117 @ BOS 106Picked BOS 64%Miss
- Jan 17BOS 132 @ ATL 106Picked BOS 59%Hit
- Jan 18ATL 119 @ BOS 115Picked BOS 78%Miss
- Nov 12ATL 117 @ BOS 116Picked BOS 89%Miss
- Nov 4BOS 123 @ ATL 93Picked BOS 80%Hit
- Mar 28BOS 122 @ ATL 123Picked BOS 79%Miss
- Mar 25BOS 118 @ ATL 120Picked BOS 77%Miss
- Feb 7ATL 117 @ BOS 125Picked BOS 79%Hit