Sacramento Kings at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints22
- Malik MonkAssists7
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds10
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints27
- Jalen JohnsonAssists10
- Jock LandaleRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–123
- Q413.0DaQuan Jeffries makes driving dunk (Malik Monk assists)113–123
- Q426.7Jalen Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)111–123
- Q436.0Jock Landale defensive rebound111–120
- Q437.7Maxime Raynaud misses free throw 2 of 2111–120
- Q437.7Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 1 of 2111–120
- Q437.7Mouhamed Gueye shooting foul110–120
- Q448.1DeMar DeRozan offensive rebound110–120
- Q453.7Malik Monk misses 25-foot three point jumper110–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:44Killian Hayes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)SAC 94 – 97 ATL · SAC 12% → 21% +9SAC 12% → 21%+9 pts
- Q48:03Daeqwon Plowden makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)SAC 97 – 97 ATL · SAC 21% → 33% +13SAC 21% → 33%+13 pts
- Q47:19Jalen Johnson makes 11-foot two point shotSAC 97 – 99 ATL · ATL 66% → 75% +9ATL 66% → 75%+9 pts
- Q46:52Jalen Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jock Landale assists)SAC 97 – 102 ATL · ATL 75% → 86% +11ATL 75% → 86%+11 pts
- Q46:22Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jalen Johnson assists)SAC 97 – 105 ATL · ATL 86% → 94% +7ATL 86% → 94%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -13.5
- ML SAC +550 / ATL -800
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -8
- ATL 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 78.8%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -578
- SAC +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 110.5 – 124.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1368 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −52 | −3 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +228 Elo | ATL 78.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 83.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 83.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.8 | Points scored | 118.26th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 116.517th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.3 | Margin | +1.712th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 113.813th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.0 | Defense rating | 112.112th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.3 | Pace | 103.44th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–30 | Road vs home | 21–1616th of 30 |
| 4th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301368 | Elo rating | 155113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–44 | 40–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 19–18 |
| Underdog | 26–39 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–37 | 37–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–2 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.