LA Clippers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints26
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds6
Kings- Devin CarterPoints21
- Devin CarterAssists5
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game138–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter138–109
- Q423.5Daeqwon Plowden makes running layup (Nique Clifford assists)138–109
- Q429.1Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound138–107
- Q430.1Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot138–107
- Q441.4Norchad Omier defensive rebound138–107
- Q441.4Devin Carter misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot138–107
- Q447.7Kobe Sanders makes 23-foot three point jumper (Norchad Omier assists)138–107
- Q41:08Nique Clifford makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot135–107
- Q41:13Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound135–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:10DeMar DeRozan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Maxime Raynaud assists)LAC 4 – 7 SAC · SAC 14% → 18% +4SAC 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q19:58Darius Garland makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 7 – 7 SAC · LAC 82% → 86% +4LAC 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q16:58Kawhi Leonard makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 14 – 13 SAC · LAC 82% → 86% +4LAC 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q16:27Kawhi Leonard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)LAC 17 – 15 SAC · LAC 83% → 87% +4LAC 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q15:56Brook Lopez makes 25-foot running jump shot (Darius Garland assists)LAC 20 – 15 SAC · LAC 87% → 90% +3LAC 87% → 90%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -13.5
- ML LAC -900 / SAC +600
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7.5
- LAC 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- LAC: Elo 76.8%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -630
- SAC +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 121.0 – 107.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1372 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | −37 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Missing Keegan Murray −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +208 Elo | LAC 76.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 84.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 84.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 110.928th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 120.927th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −10.029th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 109.227th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 119.028th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.2 | Pace | 101.118th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 17th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 14–2525th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 30 |
| 13th of 301552 | Elo rating | 137223rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−37 Elo- Keegan Murray left ankle sprain−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–38 | 33–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–25 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 29–40 |
| Overs–unders | 39–38 | 39–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 8–3 SAC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- Mar 14SAC 118 @ LAC 109Picked LAC 87%Miss
- Feb 6LAC 114 @ SAC 111Picked LAC 60%Hit
- Dec 30SAC 90 @ LAC 131Picked LAC 76%Hit
- Apr 11LAC 101 @ SAC 100Picked LAC 70%Hit
- Mar 9SAC 110 @ LAC 111Picked LAC 68%Hit
- Nov 22SAC 88 @ LAC 104Picked SAC 60%Miss
- Nov 8LAC 107 @ SAC 98Picked SAC 68%Miss
- Apr 2LAC 95 @ SAC 109Picked SAC 59%Hit