Sacramento Kings at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Devin CarterPoints20
- Killian HayesAssists7
- Devin CarterRebounds8
Nets- Ochai AgbajiPoints18
- Nolan TraoreAssists6
- Ben SarafRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–116
- Q45.2Nolan Traore lost ball turnover (Daeqwon Plowden steals)99–116
- Q422.6Devin Carter makes two point shot99–116
- Q422.6Devin Carter offensive rebound97–116
- Q423.4Devin Carter misses driving layup97–116
- Q430.2Chaney Johnson makes driving layup (Drake Powell assists)97–116
- Q444.6Devin Carter makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot97–114
- Q452.1Drake Powell makes 1-foot dunk (Chaney Johnson assists)94–114
- Q452.6Chaney Johnson offensive rebound94–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:17Noah Clowney makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)SAC 2 – 3 BKN · BKN 48% → 54% +6BKN 48% → 54%+6 pts
- Q110:52Terance Mann makes 25-foot running jump shot (Nolan Traore assists)SAC 2 – 6 BKN · BKN 54% → 60% +6BKN 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q110:11Drake Powell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)SAC 2 – 9 BKN · BKN 60% → 66% +6BKN 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q14:41Tyson Etienne makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ben Saraf assists)SAC 10 – 20 BKN · BKN 67% → 73% +6BKN 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q49:49Nique Clifford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dylan Cardwell assists)SAC 83 – 92 BKN · SAC 8% → 14% +6SAC 8% → 14%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -1.5
- ML SAC +100 / BKN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1
- BKN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- BKN: Elo 46.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BKN -109
- SAC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 107.5 – 109.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1365 | 1286 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −91 | −75 | SAC: Missing Malik Monk −16, Keegan Murray −3, Drew Eubanks −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | BKN crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SAC +22 Elo | SAC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 106.230th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 115.716th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.3 | Margin | −9.528th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 107.030th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.1 | Defense rating | 116.625th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.2 | Pace | 98.727th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–31 | Road vs home | 9–2630th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15151st of 30 |
| 26th of 301365 | Elo rating | 128628th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−91 Elo- Malik Monk right shoulder contusion−16 Elo
- Keegan Murray left ankle sprain−3 Elo
- Drew Eubanks left thumb−1 Elo
Nets
−75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–44 | 35–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 27–39 | 31–38 |
| Overs–unders | 38–37 | 33–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 4–1 BKN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.