New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Jeremiah FearsPoints28
- Jeremiah FearsAssists6
- Jeremiah FearsRebounds8
Kings- Maxime RaynaudPoints28
- Nique CliffordAssists6
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–117
- Q40.1Pelicans offensive team rebound113–117
- Q40.2Saddiq Bey misses heave jump shot113–117
- Q42.2Devin Carter makes free throw 2 of 2113–117
- Q42.2Kings offensive team rebound113–116
- Q42.2Devin Carter misses free throw 1 of 2113–116
- Q42.2Jeremiah Fears personal take foul113–116
- Q42.9Kings Full timeout113–116
- Q42.9Doug McDermott enters the game for Dylan Cardwell113–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:23Nique Clifford makes 15-foot pullup jump shotNO 109 – 109 SAC · SAC 30% → 45% +15SAC 30% → 45%+15 pts
- Q42:08Zion Williamson makes driving layup (Jeremiah Fears assists)NO 111 – 112 SAC · NO 26% → 44% +18NO 26% → 44%+18 pts
- Q444.2Maxime Raynaud makes driving layup (Devin Carter assists)NO 111 – 114 SAC · SAC 64% → 89% +24SAC 64% → 89%+24 pts
- Q424.6Saddiq Bey makes 3-foot two point shotNO 113 – 114 SAC · NO 5% → 30% +25NO 5% → 30%+25 pts
- Q416.8Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 2 of 2NO 113 – 115 SAC · SAC 74% → 91% +17SAC 74% → 91%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NO -6.5
- ML NO -245 / SAC +200
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- NO 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.2 pts
- NO: Elo 49.8%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- NO -213
- SAC +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 119.5 – 113.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1389 | 1365 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +14 | −37 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Missing De'Andre Hunter −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +1 Elo | SAC 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 62.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 110.928th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.5 | Points allowed | 121.127th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.5 | Margin | −10.229th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 109.127th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 119.128th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.118th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–29 | Road vs home | 13–2525th of 30 |
| 7th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15086th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301389 | Elo rating | 136523rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−37 Elo- De'Andre Hunter left eye−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–35 | 32–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–3 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 30–32 | 28–40 |
| Overs–unders | 38–39 | 39–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 8–3 SAC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Mar 5NO 133 @ SAC 123Picked NO 70%Hit
- Feb 9SAC 94 @ NO 120Picked NO 77%Hit
- Feb 13SAC 133 @ NO 140Picked SAC 74%Miss
- Feb 12SAC 119 @ NO 111Picked SAC 66%Hit
- Feb 8NO 118 @ SAC 123Picked SAC 73%Hit
- Dec 12SAC 111 @ NO 109Picked SAC 68%Hit
- Apr 11NO 135 @ SAC 123Picked SAC 53%Miss
- Jan 7NO 133 @ SAC 100Picked SAC 58%Miss