Sacramento Kings at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Precious AchiuwaPoints28
- Malik MonkAssists5
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds19
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints20
- Scottie BarnesAssists10
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–115
- Q40.0Raptors offensive team rebound123–115
- Q40.0Jamal Shead misses heave jump shot123–115
- Q42.0shot clock turnover123–115
- Q424.9Malik Monk defensive rebound123–115
- Q427.4Jamal Shead misses driving floating jump shot123–115
- Q434.7Precious Achiuwa makes two point shot (Malik Monk assists)123–115
- Q448.8Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound121–115
- Q451.5RJ Barrett misses 23-foot jump bank shot121–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:56Jamal Shead makes 28-foot running jump shot (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)SAC 112 – 108 TOR · TOR 16% → 33% +17TOR 16% → 33%+17 pts
- Q42:54DeMar DeRozan makes two point shotSAC 114 – 110 TOR · SAC 57% → 72% +16SAC 57% → 72%+16 pts
- Q41:40Scottie Barnes makes 2-foot two point shotSAC 116 – 114 TOR · TOR 18% → 36% +18TOR 18% → 36%+18 pts
- Q41:27DeMar DeRozan makes two point shotSAC 118 – 114 TOR · SAC 66% → 85% +18SAC 66% → 85%+18 pts
- Q41:05DeMar DeRozan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 121 – 115 TOR · SAC 81% → 97% +16SAC 81% → 97%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -12.5
- ML SAC +525 / TOR -750
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -7.5
- TOR 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 76.3%, market 84.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -551
- SAC +551 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 107.5 – 120.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1349 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −34 | +2 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +203 Elo | TOR 76.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 82.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 82.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 84.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.7 | Points scored | 114.322nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.1 | Points allowed | 112.29th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.4 | Margin | +2.212th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 113.415th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.1 | Defense rating | 111.28th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.220th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–413th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–32 | Road vs home | 21–1616th of 30 |
| 5th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 25th of 301349 | Elo rating | 152016th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–45 | 39–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 22–22 |
| Underdog | 27–40 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders | 38–38 | 29–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–2 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.