Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints25
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Lakers- Rui HachimuraPoints15
- Luke KennardAssists9
- Jake LaRaviaRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–87
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–87
- Q43.2Nick Smith Jr. makes 13-foot fade away jump shot (Kobe Bufkin assists)123–87
- Q410.7Kobe Bufkin defensive rebound123–85
- Q414.6Aaron Wiggins misses 27-foot three point jumper123–85
- Q429.9Branden Carlson defensive rebound123–85
- Q434.2Dalton Knecht misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot123–85
- Q453.8Brooks Barnhizer makes tip shot123–85
- Q453.8Brooks Barnhizer offensive rebound121–85
- Q454.4Kenrich Williams misses running layup121–85
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:04Isaiah Joe makes 30-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 29 – 25 LAL · OKC 90% → 93% +3OKC 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q29:24Rui Hachimura makes 26-foot running jump shot (Luke Kennard assists)OKC 36 – 36 LAL · LAL 9% → 12% +3LAL 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q28:31Alex Caruso makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)OKC 39 – 36 LAL · OKC 88% → 91% +3OKC 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q28:08Jared McCain makes 22-foot three pointer (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 42 – 38 LAL · OKC 89% → 92% +3OKC 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q27:16Alex Caruso makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)OKC 45 – 42 LAL · OKC 87% → 91% +4OKC 87% → 91%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -17.5
- ML OKC -2100 / LAL +1100
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -12.5
- OKC 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 87.9%, market 92.0%
- Fair odds
- OKC -1145
- LAL +1145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 119.5 – 102.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1748 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | −190 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Missing Jaxson Hayes −20 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +344 Elo | OKC 87.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 88.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 88.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 92.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 116.711th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 115.314th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.7 | Margin | +1.415th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 116.38th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.4 | Defense rating | 114.820th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 100.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 1st of 3028–9 | Road vs home | 26–127th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 1st of 301748 | Elo rating | 158310th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−190 Elo- Jaxson Hayes left foot−20 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–41 | 43–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 34–40 | 30–18 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders | 41–37 | 41–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 6–4 LAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Apr 2LAL 96 @ OKC 139Picked OKC 76%Hit
- Feb 9OKC 119 @ LAL 110Picked OKC 68%Hit
- Nov 12LAL 92 @ OKC 121Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Apr 8LAL 120 @ OKC 136Picked OKC 77%Hit
- Apr 6LAL 126 @ OKC 99Picked OKC 76%Miss
- Nov 29OKC 101 @ LAL 93Picked OKC 57%Hit
- Mar 4OKC 104 @ LAL 116Picked LAL 58%Hit
- Jan 15OKC 105 @ LAL 112Picked OKC 63%Miss