Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints31
- Kevin DurantAssists8
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds9
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints29
- Draymond GreenAssists12
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–116
- Q40.1Warriors offensive team rebound117–116
- Q42.1Stephen Curry misses 30-foot three point step back jumpshot117–116
- Q411.1Alperen Sengun makes 4-foot layup (Kevin Durant assists)117–116
- Q416.1Alperen Sengun enters the game for Josh Okogie115–116
- Q416.1Reed Sheppard enters the game for Aaron Holiday115–116
- Q416.1Rockets Full timeout115–116
- Q419.6Amen Thompson defensive goaltending violation115–116
- Q419.6Gary Payton II makes 2-foot layup (Draymond Green assists)115–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:27Stephen Curry makes layup (Draymond Green assists)HOU 112 – 111 GS · GS 17% → 36% +19GS 17% → 36%+19 pts
- Q41:09Alperen Sengun makes 10-foot jumper (Kevin Durant assists)HOU 114 – 111 GS · HOU 65% → 85% +21HOU 65% → 85%+21 pts
- Q457.8Stephen Curry makes 32-foot three point jumper (Gary Payton II assists)HOU 115 – 114 GS · GS 7% → 34% +28GS 7% → 34%+28 pts
- Q419.6Gary Payton II makes 2-foot layup (Draymond Green assists)HOU 115 – 116 GS · GS 26% → 73% +47GS 26% → 73%+47 pts
- Q411.1Alperen Sengun makes 4-foot layup (Kevin Durant assists)HOU 117 – 116 GS · HOU 21% → 80% +60HOU 21% → 80%+60 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.7% of 394 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3.5
- ML HOU -180 / GS +150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 58.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -161
- GS +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 115.5 – 112.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | +34 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +57 Elo | HOU 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 114.819th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 115.112th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.9 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 112.518th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.9 | Pace | 101.317th of 30 |
| 10th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 14th of 3020–19 | Road vs home | 21–1716th of 30 |
| 25th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 30 |
| 9th of 301594 | Elo rating | 148019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–44 | 34–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–40 | 21–26 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders | 35–42 | 46–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–11 GS in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.
- Mar 5GS 115 @ HOU 113Picked HOU 77%Miss
- Nov 26HOU 104 @ GS 100Picked GS 61%Miss
- May 4GS 103 @ HOU 89PlayoffsPicked HOU 55%Miss
- May 2HOU 115 @ GS 107PlayoffsPicked GS 68%Miss
- Apr 30GS 116 @ HOU 131PlayoffsPicked HOU 62%Hit
- Apr 28HOU 106 @ GS 109PlayoffsPicked GS 59%Hit
- Apr 26HOU 93 @ GS 104PlayoffsPicked GS 54%Hit
- Apr 23GS 94 @ HOU 109PlayoffsPicked HOU 61%Hit