Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints25
- Dennis SchroderAssists6
- Jarrett AllenRebounds13
Warriors- Brandin PodziemskiPoints25
- Draymond GreenAssists9
- Gary Payton IIRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–111
- Q41.8Evan Mobley defensive rebound118–111
- Q45.1LJ Cryer misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot118–111
- Q49.5James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2118–111
- Q49.5James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2117–111
- Q49.5Draymond Green personal foul116–111
- Q410.5Dennis Schroder enters the game for Jarrett Allen116–111
- Q410.5De'Anthony Melton enters the game for Gui Santos116–111
- Q410.5Gary Payton II enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis116–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:23Brandin Podziemski makes 28-foot three pointer (Draymond Green assists)CLE 94 – 96 GS · GS 32% → 46% +14GS 32% → 46%+14 pts
- Q44:35James Harden makes driving layupCLE 100 – 100 GS · CLE 47% → 60% +13CLE 47% → 60%+13 pts
- Q44:17Gui Santos makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)CLE 100 – 103 GS · GS 40% → 61% +21GS 40% → 61%+21 pts
- Q44:01Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three pointerCLE 103 – 103 GS · CLE 38% → 59% +21CLE 38% → 59%+21 pts
- Q41:56Max Strus makes 24-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 110 – 105 GS · CLE 75% → 93% +18CLE 75% → 93%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -10.5
- ML CLE -485 / GS +370
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6.5
- CLE 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 73.3%, market 79.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -390
- GS +390 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 120.5 – 110.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | −30 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +175 Elo | CLE 73.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 75.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 75.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 79.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 114.919th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 115.113th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 112.815th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.317th of 30 |
| 8th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 7th of 3023–15 | Road vs home | 21–1615th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 30 |
| 7th of 301602 | Elo rating | 148418th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–46 | 33–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–40 | 21–26 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders | 37–39 | 46–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–1 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.