Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints26
- LeBron JamesAssists11
- LeBron JamesRebounds8
Warriors- Nate WilliamsPoints17
- Pat SpencerAssists6
- Charles BasseyRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–103
- Q48.2Charles Bassey makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Nate Williams assists)119–103
- Q425.9Bronny James makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kobe Bufkin assists)119–101
- Q437.6Nate Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malevy Leons assists)116–101
- Q451.0Pat Spencer defensive rebound116–98
- Q452.3Drew Timme misses 23-foot three point jumper116–98
- Q41:11Nate Williams makes driving layup (Pat Spencer assists)116–98
- Q41:25Malevy Leons defensive rebound116–96
- Q41:31Charles Bassey blocks Adou Thiero 's 7-foot layup116–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:54LeBron James makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 31 – 32 GS · LAL 39% → 46% +7LAL 39% → 46%+7 pts
- Q28:07Pat Spencer makes 30-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 31 – 35 GS · GS 54% → 61% +7GS 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q26:47Rui Hachimura makes 26-foot three point jumper (Drew Timme assists)LAL 38 – 35 GS · LAL 49% → 56% +8LAL 49% → 56%+8 pts
- Q24:17Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bronny James assists)LAL 44 – 39 GS · LAL 54% → 62% +8LAL 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q311:02Jake LaRavia makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)LAL 58 – 49 GS · LAL 66% → 74% +8LAL 66% → 74%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- GS -1.5
- ML LAL -102 / GS -118
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- GS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- GS: Elo 49.8%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- GS -107
- LAL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 110.5 – 112.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −125 | −64 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Gui Santos −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +2 Elo | LAL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 114.820th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 115.012th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 112.718th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 112.916th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 101.117th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–16 | Road vs home | 22–1817th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 30 |
| 10th of 301579 | Elo rating | 148018th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−125 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−64 Elo- Gui Santos right pelvic contusion−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–36 | 35–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–18 | 21–27 |
| Underdog | 13–18 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders | 41–38 | 47–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 6–5 GS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Feb 28LAL 129 @ GS 101Picked LAL 60%Hit
- Feb 7GS 99 @ LAL 105Picked LAL 54%Hit
- Oct 21GS 119 @ LAL 109Picked GS 58%Hit
- Apr 3GS 123 @ LAL 116Picked LAL 50%Miss
- Feb 6GS 112 @ LAL 120Picked LAL 62%Hit
- Jan 25LAL 118 @ GS 108Picked LAL 51%Hit
- Dec 25LAL 115 @ GS 113Picked GS 61%Miss
- Apr 9GS 134 @ LAL 120Picked GS 52%Hit