Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Killian HayesPoints18
- Devin CarterAssists5
- Dylan CardwellRebounds9
Warriors- De'Anthony MeltonPoints21
- Draymond GreenAssists7
- Charles BasseyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–110
- Q414.3Stephen Curry defensive rebound105–110
- Q417.3Doug McDermott misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot105–110
- Q428.0De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 2 of 2105–110
- Q428.0Warriors offensive team rebound105–109
- Q428.0De'Anthony Melton misses free throw 1 of 2105–109
- Q428.0Killian Hayes personal take foul105–109
- Q431.0Killian Hayes makes free throw 2 of 2105–109
- Q431.0Charles Bassey enters the game for Gary Payton II104–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:05De'Anthony Melton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)SAC 95 – 95 GS · GS 52% → 67% +16GS 52% → 67%+16 pts
- Q45:47Seth Curry makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Malevy Leons assists)SAC 97 – 98 GS · GS 54% → 71% +17GS 54% → 71%+17 pts
- Q42:53Doug McDermott makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dylan Cardwell assists)SAC 104 – 101 GS · SAC 39% → 64% +25SAC 39% → 64%+25 pts
- Q42:38Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)SAC 104 – 104 GS · GS 35% → 61% +26GS 35% → 61%+26 pts
- Q41:52Brandin Podziemski makes 24-foot three pointer (Stephen Curry assists)SAC 104 – 107 GS · GS 59% → 85% +26GS 59% → 85%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- GS -14.5
- ML SAC +700 / GS -1100
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -7
- GS 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- GS: Elo 76.2%, market 88.0%
- Fair odds
- GS -733
- SAC +733 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 109.5 – 124.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1363 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −50 | +3 | SAC: Missing Zach LaVine −14, Keegan Murray −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · GS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −39, Gui Santos −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +202 Elo | GS 76.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 81.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 81.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 88.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 114.819th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 115.112th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.2 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.2 | Defense rating | 112.916th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.217th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–32 | Road vs home | 21–1819th of 30 |
| 7th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15094th of 30 |
| 24th of 301363 | Elo rating | 147720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−50 Elo- Zach LaVine right finger surgery−14 Elo
- Keegan Murray left ankle sprain−1 Elo
Warriors
+3 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis right knee soreness−39 Elo
- Gui Santos right hip contusion−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–46 | 35–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 21–26 |
| Underdog | 29–41 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders | 40–39 | 47–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 5–5 GS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Jan 9SAC 103 @ GS 137Picked GS 85%Hit
- Nov 5GS 116 @ SAC 121Picked SAC 56%Hit
- Mar 13SAC 104 @ GS 130Picked GS 70%Hit
- Feb 21GS 132 @ SAC 108Picked GS 53%Hit
- Jan 22GS 117 @ SAC 123Picked SAC 71%Hit
- Jan 5SAC 129 @ GS 99Picked GS 59%Miss
- Jan 25SAC 134 @ GS 133Picked SAC 57%Hit
- Nov 28GS 123 @ SAC 124Picked SAC 64%Hit