Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Brandin PodziemskiPoints30
- Draymond GreenAssists6
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds7
Kings- Devin CarterPoints29
- Nique CliffordAssists6
- Devin CarterRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–124
- Q44.5Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 2 of 2118–124
- Q44.5Warriors offensive team rebound117–124
- Q44.5Brandin Podziemski misses free throw 1 of 2117–124
- Q44.5Dylan Cardwell shooting foul117–124
- Q49.9Maxime Raynaud makes 2-foot dunk (Nique Clifford assists)117–124
- Q416.1Nique Clifford defensive rebound117–122
- Q418.3Brandin Podziemski misses two point shot117–122
- Q425.9Nique Clifford makes free throw 2 of 2117–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:16Maxime Raynaud makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)GS 100 – 106 SAC · SAC 58% → 75% +17SAC 58% → 75%+17 pts
- Q44:19Daeqwon Plowden makes 26-foot three point jumper (Maxime Raynaud assists)GS 104 – 109 SAC · SAC 54% → 73% +19SAC 54% → 73%+19 pts
- Q42:38Maxime Raynaud makes 9-foot two point shotGS 110 – 113 SAC · SAC 51% → 68% +17SAC 51% → 68%+17 pts
- Q42:14Brandin Podziemski makes driving layup (Pat Spencer assists)GS 112 – 113 SAC · GS 29% → 48% +18GS 29% → 48%+18 pts
- Q41:58Maxime Raynaud makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Devin Carter assists)GS 112 – 115 SAC · SAC 53% → 73% +19SAC 53% → 73%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- GS -10.5
- ML GS -500 / SAC +380
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -4
- GS 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.1 pts
- GS: Elo 65.9%, market 80.0%
- Fair odds
- GS -400
- SAC +400 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 119.5 – 109.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1360 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +34 | −51 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Missing De'Andre Hunter −13, Keegan Murray −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +115 Elo | GS 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 76.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 75.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 80.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.6 | Points scored | 110.828th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 121.027th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −10.229th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 109.126th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 119.128th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.117th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3015–24 | Road vs home | 14–2625th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 30 |
| 20th of 301466 | Elo rating | 136025th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−51 Elo- De'Andre Hunter left eye−13 Elo
- Keegan Murray left ankle sprain−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–45 | 34–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–28 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 14–17 | 30–41 |
| Overs–unders | 47–33 | 40–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 6–5 SAC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Apr 7SAC 105 @ GS 110Picked GS 88%Hit
- Jan 9SAC 103 @ GS 137Picked GS 85%Hit
- Nov 5GS 116 @ SAC 121Picked SAC 56%Hit
- Mar 13SAC 104 @ GS 130Picked GS 70%Hit
- Feb 21GS 132 @ SAC 108Picked GS 53%Hit
- Jan 22GS 117 @ SAC 123Picked SAC 71%Hit
- Jan 5SAC 129 @ GS 99Picked GS 59%Miss
- Jan 25SAC 134 @ GS 133Picked SAC 57%Hit