Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ty JeromePoints28
- Cameron BoozerAssists6
- Cameron BoozerRebounds13
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints24
- Yaxel LendeborgAssists6
- Yaxel LendeborgRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–108
- Q40.2Jerami Grant bad pass
turnover (Yaxel Lendeborg steals)111–108
- Q40.5Al Horford enters the game for Draymond Green111–108
- Q40.5Grizzlies Full timeout111–108
- Q40.5Yaxel Lendeborg makes free throw 2 of 2111–108
- Q40.5Yaxel Lendeborg makes free throw 1 of 2111–107
- Q40.5Zach Edey shooting foul111–106
- Q42.8Yaxel Lendeborg offensive rebound111–106
- Q42.8Brandon Williams misses 24-foot fade away jump shot111–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:54Cam Spencer makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotMEM 92 – 95 GS · MEM 18% → 31% +13MEM 18% → 31%+13 pts
- Q46:28De'Anthony Melton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Yaxel Lendeborg assists)MEM 92 – 98 GS · GS 70% → 83% +13GS 70% → 83%+13 pts
- Q41:24Ty Jerome makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zach Edey assists)MEM 105 – 106 GS · MEM 10% → 36% +26MEM 10% → 36%+26 pts
- Q454.7Jaylen Wells makes free throw 2 of 2MEM 106 – 106 GS · MEM 34% → 49% +15MEM 34% → 49%+15 pts
- Q420.1Cameron Boozer makes 9-foot turnaround jump shotMEM 108 – 106 GS · MEM 49% → 89% +40MEM 49% → 89%+40 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Warriors 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -3.5
- ML MEM +136 / GS -162
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1
- GS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- GS: Elo 54.2%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- GS -146
- MEM +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 116.5 – 120.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | −24 | MEM: Missing Cedric Coward (40% to sit) −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −40, Kristaps Porzingis −28, Brandin Podziemski (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | GS +29 Elo | GS 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 114.622nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 115.214th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.0 | Margin | −0.620th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 112.718th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 113.317th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.6 | Pace | 101.018th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–29 | Road vs home | 22–1919th of 30 |
| 6th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301402 | Elo rating | 146019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MEM |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–45 | 35–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 21–29 |
| Underdog | 27–36 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 43–39 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–8 GS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Feb 25GS 133 @ MEM 112Picked GS 62%Hit
- Feb 9MEM 113 @ GS 114Picked GS 77%Hit
- Oct 27MEM 118 @ GS 131Picked GS 74%Hit
- Apr 1GS 134 @ MEM 125Picked GS 57%Hit
- Jan 4MEM 113 @ GS 121Picked GS 57%Hit
- Dec 19GS 93 @ MEM 144Picked MEM 53%Hit
- Nov 15MEM 118 @ GS 123Picked GS 72%Hit
- Mar 20MEM 116 @ GS 137Picked GS 70%Hit