Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Cedric CowardPoints27
- Jahmai MashackAssists7
- Dariq WhiteheadRebounds7
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints26
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–136
- Q418.5DaRon Holmes II makes 22-foot three pointer (Jalen Pickett assists)119–136
- Q434.4Cedric Coward makes running layup119–133
- Q438.7Cedric Coward defensive rebound117–133
- Q441.2DaRon Holmes II misses 26-foot three point jumper117–133
- Q454.2Cedric Coward makes free throw 1 of 1117–133
- Q454.2Jalen Pickett shooting foul116–133
- Q454.2Cedric Coward makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot116–133
- Q41:07KJ Simpson traveling turnover114–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:16Lucas Williamson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Adama Bal assists)MEM 56 – 48 DEN · MEM 17% → 22% +5MEM 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q39:57Aaron Gordon makes running layupMEM 76 – 70 DEN · DEN 69% → 74% +5DEN 69% → 74%+5 pts
- Q39:47Cedric Coward makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)MEM 78 – 70 DEN · MEM 26% → 31% +5MEM 26% → 31%+5 pts
- Q39:31Christian Braun makes 1-foot layup (Nikola Jokic assists)MEM 78 – 72 DEN · DEN 68% → 74% +5DEN 68% → 74%+5 pts
- Q38:08Toby Okani makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jahmai Mashack assists)MEM 81 – 76 DEN · MEM 18% → 26% +7MEM 18% → 26%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 95%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -23.5
- ML MEM +1800 / DEN -5000
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 96%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -16.5
- DEN 93%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- DEN: Elo 93.3%, market 94.9%
- Fair odds
- DEN -1863
- MEM +1863 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 112.0 – 135.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 247.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1343 | 1623 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −53 | +89 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +458 Elo | DEN 93.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 95.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 95.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 94.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 121.81st of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 117.021st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.1 | Margin | +4.78th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 120.01st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 115.321st of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.3 | Pace | 100.122nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–26 | Road vs home | 26–137th of 30 |
| 10th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149127th of 30 |
| 27th of 301343 | Elo rating | 16236th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–43 | 42–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 25–30 |
| Underdog | 26–34 | 17–7 |
| Overs–unders | 40–39 | 48–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–8 DEN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Mar 18DEN 118 @ MEM 125Picked DEN 85%Miss
- Feb 11MEM 116 @ DEN 122Picked DEN 84%Hit
- Nov 24DEN 125 @ MEM 115Picked DEN 70%Hit
- Apr 11MEM 109 @ DEN 117Picked DEN 72%Hit
- Nov 19DEN 122 @ MEM 110Picked MEM 67%Miss
- Nov 17DEN 90 @ MEM 105Picked MEM 67%Hit
- Apr 14DEN 126 @ MEM 111Picked DEN 73%Hit
- Mar 25MEM 103 @ DEN 128Picked DEN 65%Hit