Memphis Grizzlies at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Rayan RupertPoints33
- Rayan RupertAssists10
- Rayan RupertRebounds10
Bucks- Ryan RollinsPoints24
- Ousmane DiengAssists6
- Myles TurnerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–129
- Q414.2Rayan Rupert makes technical free throw115–129
- Q414.2Thanasis Antetokounmpo hanging techfoul114–129
- Q414.2Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Alex Antetokounmpo assists)114–129
- Q423.6Rayan Rupert makes driving layup114–127
- Q429.9Alex Antetokounmpo makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Cormac Ryan assists)112–127
- Q446.3Walter Clayton Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Rayan Rupert assists)112–125
- Q455.3Grizzlies defensive team rebound109–125
- Q457.3Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 2 of 2109–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:34Dariq Whitehead makes 26-foot three pointer (Adama Bal assists)MEM 97 – 98 MIL · MEM 24% → 36% +13MEM 24% → 36%+13 pts
- Q48:15Cormac Ryan makes 10-foot two point shotMEM 97 – 100 MIL · MIL 64% → 73% +9MIL 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q47:52Dariq Whitehead makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Rayan Rupert assists)MEM 99 – 100 MIL · MEM 27% → 36% +9MEM 27% → 36%+9 pts
- Q47:43Ryan Rollins makes two point shotMEM 99 – 102 MIL · MIL 64% → 73% +9MIL 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q46:44Taurean Prince makes 26-foot three pointer (Ousmane Dieng assists)MEM 99 – 107 MIL · MIL 82% → 91% +9MIL 82% → 91%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -7.5
- ML MEM +225 / MIL -278
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3.5
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 63.9%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -239
- MEM +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 111.5 – 119.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1360 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −119 | −91 | MEM: Missing Cam Spencer −26, Cedric Coward −21, GG Jackson −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +99 Elo | MIL 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 75.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 74.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 110.529th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.6 | Points allowed | 116.921st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.8 | Margin | −6.425th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 110.924th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 117.327th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 99.224th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–25 | Road vs home | 17–2222nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 30 |
| 25th of 301360 | Elo rating | 139521st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−119 Elo- Cam Spencer low back soreness−26 Elo
- Cedric Coward low back soreness−21 Elo
- GG Jackson left knee soreness−13 Elo
Bucks
−91 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–41 | 34–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 26–32 | 25–26 |
| Overs–unders | 38–39 | 35–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 5–0 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.