Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints26
- Jayson TatumAssists9
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Bucks- Taurean PrincePoints18
- Jericho SimsAssists6
- Pete NanceRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–101
- Q44.7Celtics defensive team rebound133–101
- Q45.0Andre Jackson Jr. misses 6-foot two point shot133–101
- Q425.9shot clock turnover133–101
- Q449.1Thanasis Antetokounmpo bad pass
turnover (Ron Harper Jr. steals)133–101
- Q455.1Baylor Scheierman bad pass
turnover (Thanasis Antetokounmpo steals)133–101
- Q41:10Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound133–101
- Q41:12Alex Antetokounmpo misses 22-foot three point jumper133–101
- Q41:25Jordan Walsh makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Baylor Scheierman assists)133–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:40Neemias Queta makes 1-foot floating jump shot (Derrick White assists)BOS 2 – 0 MIL · BOS 93% → 94% +1BOS 93% → 94%+1 pts
- Q111:22Sam Hauser makes 25-foot running jump shot (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 5 – 0 MIL · BOS 94% → 96% +2BOS 94% → 96%+2 pts
- Q110:25AJ Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ousmane Dieng assists)BOS 7 – 3 MIL · MIL 4% → 5% +1MIL 4% → 5%+1 pts
- Q19:46Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 11 – 3 MIL · BOS 95% → 97% +1BOS 95% → 97%+1 pts
- Q19:01Ousmane Dieng makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 14 – 6 MIL · MIL 2% → 3% +1MIL 2% → 3%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -17.5
- ML BOS -2400 / MIL +1200
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -14
- BOS 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 90.9%, market 92.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -1248
- MIL +1248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 117.5 – 100.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1674 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | −113 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +399 Elo | BOS 90.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 90.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 90.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 92.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.4 | Points scored | 110.629th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Points allowed | 116.721st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.2 | Margin | −6.025th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 111.023rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 117.026th of 30 |
| 30th of 3096.9 | Pace | 99.324th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 4th of 3025–14 | Road vs home | 17–2122nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301674 | Elo rating | 139821st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−113 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–32 | 34–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–24 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 25–25 |
| Overs–unders | 27–49 | 34–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–3 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Mar 2BOS 108 @ MIL 81Picked BOS 55%Hit
- Feb 1MIL 79 @ BOS 107Picked BOS 83%Hit
- Dec 11BOS 101 @ MIL 116Picked BOS 77%Miss
- Dec 6MIL 105 @ BOS 111Picked BOS 74%Hit
- Nov 10BOS 113 @ MIL 107Picked BOS 64%Hit
- Oct 28MIL 108 @ BOS 119Picked BOS 77%Hit
- Apr 9BOS 91 @ MIL 104Picked BOS 63%Miss
- Mar 20MIL 119 @ BOS 122Picked BOS 82%Hit