Boston Celtics at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints43
- Jayson TatumAssists11
- Jayson TatumRebounds18
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints29
- Davion MitchellAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game147–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter147–129
- Q47.8Max Shulga enters the game for Neemias Queta147–129
- Q47.8Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Derrick White147–129
- Q47.8Jordan Walsh enters the game for Jaylen Brown147–129
- Q47.8shot clock turnover147–129
- Q432.0Neemias Queta defensive rebound147–129
- Q436.5Davion Mitchell misses 25-foot three point jumper147–129
- Q442.3Derrick White makes 12-foot two point shot (Jaylen Brown assists)147–129
- Q41:02Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point shot145–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:41Sam Hauser makes 22-foot three point jumper (Baylor Scheierman assists)BOS 21 – 21 MIA · BOS 57% → 63% +6BOS 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q16:16Davion Mitchell makes 24-foot three pointerBOS 21 – 24 MIA · MIA 37% → 44% +6MIA 37% → 44%+6 pts
- Q15:56Baylor Scheierman makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 24 – 24 MIA · BOS 56% → 63% +6BOS 56% → 63%+6 pts
- Q14:54Payton Pritchard makes 29-foot three point jumper (Baylor Scheierman assists)BOS 29 – 28 MIA · BOS 58% → 65% +6BOS 58% → 65%+6 pts
- Q14:12Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 32 – 30 MIA · BOS 60% → 67% +6BOS 60% → 67%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -4.5
- ML BOS -198 / MIA +164
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -4.5
- BOS 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 68.0%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -175
- MIA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 117.0 – 112.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1666 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | +22 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +131 Elo | BOS 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 63.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.0 | Points scored | 120.22nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.9 | Points allowed | 117.822nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.1 | Margin | +2.411th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.3 | Offense rating | 113.714th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 111.39th of 30 |
| 30th of 3096.8 | Pace | 105.51st of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–14 | Road vs home | 24–1410th of 30 |
| 28th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301666 | Elo rating | 150617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–32 | 44–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–24 | 20–17 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 24–15 |
| Overs–unders | 26–49 | 42–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 13–2 MIA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 15.
- Feb 6MIA 96 @ BOS 98Picked BOS 66%Hit
- Jan 15BOS 119 @ MIA 114Picked BOS 57%Hit
- Dec 19MIA 116 @ BOS 129Picked BOS 72%Hit
- Apr 2MIA 124 @ BOS 103Picked BOS 79%Miss
- Mar 14BOS 103 @ MIA 91Picked BOS 76%Hit
- Feb 10BOS 103 @ MIA 85Picked BOS 73%Hit
- Dec 2MIA 89 @ BOS 108Picked BOS 77%Hit
- May 1MIA 84 @ BOS 118PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Hit