New York Knicks at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints25
- Karl-Anthony TownsAssists11
- OG AnunobyRebounds13
Grizzlies- GG JacksonPoints20
- Cam SpencerAssists8
- Olivier-Maxence ProsperRebounds4
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–119
- Q421.0OG Anunoby defensive rebound130–119
- Q423.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses free throw 1 of 1130–119
- Q423.0Jose Alvarado shooting foul130–119
- Q423.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 4-foot two point shot (Cam Spencer assists)130–119
- Q430.0Tyler Kolek enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns130–117
- Q430.0Jose Alvarado out of bounds lost ball turnover130–117
- Q443.3Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 1-foot dunk (Cam Spencer assists)130–117
- Q445.5Cam Spencer offensive rebound130–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:48Adama Bal makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)NY 90 – 87 MEM · MEM 12% → 19% +7MEM 12% → 19%+7 pts
- Q32:40Landry Shamet makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)NY 93 – 87 MEM · NY 81% → 88% +7NY 81% → 88%+7 pts
- Q31:43Jordan Clarkson makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Tyler Kolek assists)NY 95 – 87 MEM · NY 88% → 91% +3NY 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q348.5Cedric Coward makes 25-foot running jump shot (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)NY 97 – 90 MEM · MEM 6% → 10% +4MEM 6% → 10%+4 pts
- Q411:36Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)NY 102 – 90 MEM · NY 93% → 96% +3NY 93% → 96%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -13.5
- ML NY -900 / MEM +600
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5
- NY 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.7 pts
- NY: Elo 69.6%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- NY -630
- MEM +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 119.0 – 105.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1621 | 1377 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −57 | −32 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +143 Elo | NY 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 77.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 77.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 115.018th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 119.324th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.1 | Margin | −4.321st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 110.825th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 115.021st of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.0 | Pace | 103.44th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–822nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3020–19 | Road vs home | 13–2425th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 5th of 301621 | Elo rating | 137723rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–39 | 35–40 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–31 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 25–31 |
| Overs–unders | 37–40 | 37–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 5–0 MEM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.