Toronto Raptors at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints25
- Jamal SheadAssists6
- Ja'Kobe WalterRebounds8
Grizzlies- GG JacksonPoints30
- Javon SmallAssists4
- Toby OkaniRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–96
- Q48.3shot clock turnover128–96
- Q432.3Adama Bal traveling turnover128–96
- Q440.6Gradey Dick makes two point shot128–96
- Q440.6Gradey Dick offensive rebound126–96
- Q443.6Alijah Martin misses 26-foot three point jumper126–96
- Q456.7Rayan Rupert makes two point shot126–96
- Q41:00Rayan Rupert defensive rebound126–94
- Q41:02Gradey Dick misses free throw 2 of 2126–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:09Taylor Hendricks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cedric Coward assists)TOR 28 – 25 MEM · MEM 9% → 12% +3MEM 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q210:49GG Jackson makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 28 – 28 MEM · MEM 12% → 16% +4MEM 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q29:30RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 31 – 29 MEM · TOR 82% → 87% +4TOR 82% → 87%+4 pts
- Q28:25Javon Small makes 26-foot three pointerTOR 34 – 32 MEM · MEM 10% → 14% +4MEM 10% → 14%+4 pts
- Q28:05RJ Barrett makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 37 – 32 MEM · TOR 86% → 90% +4TOR 86% → 90%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -14.5
- ML TOR -1100 / MEM +700
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -6
- TOR 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 73.1%, market 88.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -733
- MEM +733 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 124.0 – 109.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1371 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −58 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Cam Spencer −16 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +173 Elo | TOR 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 85.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 84.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 88.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.4 | Points scored | 115.117th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 119.524th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.1 | Margin | −4.421st of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 111.025th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 115.222nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 103.36th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–823rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3021–17 | Road vs home | 13–2525th of 30 |
| 15th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150512th of 30 |
| 16th of 301503 | Elo rating | 137123rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−58 Elo- Cam Spencer lower back soreness−16 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–37 | 36–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–23 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 17–14 | 26–31 |
| Overs–unders | 30–46 | 38–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–3 MEM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.