Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints24
- Dennis SchroderAssists11
- Jarrett AllenRebounds9
Grizzlies- Olivier-Maxence ProsperPoints24
- Walter Clayton Jr.Assists11
- Adama BalRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game142–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter142–126
- Q47.7Tyrese Proctor defensive rebound142–126
- Q414.2Dariq Whitehead misses 23-foot three point jumper142–126
- Q422.6Tyrese Proctor makes free throw 2 of 2142–126
- Q422.6Tyrese Proctor makes free throw 1 of 2141–126
- Q422.6Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Lucas Williamson140–126
- Q422.6Lucas Williamson personal take foul140–126
- Q423.9Cavaliers defensive team rebound140–126
- Q425.2GG Jackson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot140–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110.2Dariq Whitehead makes 23-foot running jump shot (Cedric Coward assists)CLE 24 – 36 MEM · MEM 32% → 38% +7MEM 32% → 38%+7 pts
- Q29:52Craig Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three pointerCLE 30 – 44 MEM · CLE 47% → 55% +7CLE 47% → 55%+7 pts
- Q28:24Evan Mobley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Proctor assists)CLE 33 – 46 MEM · CLE 48% → 56% +8CLE 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q26:13Dariq Whitehead makes 26-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)CLE 37 – 52 MEM · MEM 44% → 52% +8MEM 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q24:47Dariq Whitehead makes 26-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)CLE 44 – 55 MEM · MEM 36% → 43% +8MEM 36% → 43%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -13.5
- ML CLE -1100 / MEM +700
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6
- CLE 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 72.2%, market 88.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -733
- MEM +733 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 122.5 – 109.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1609 | 1350 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MEM and CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −70 | −13 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +166 Elo | CLE 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 84.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 83.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 88.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 114.819th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 119.725th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.2 | Margin | −4.922nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 110.825th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 115.522nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.6 | Pace | 103.36th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 6th of 3024–15 | Road vs home | 13–2626th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 30 |
| 7th of 301609 | Elo rating | 135025th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–48 | 36–42 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–42 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 26–33 |
| Overs–unders | 37–41 | 39–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–0 MEM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.