Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Micah PotterPoints21
- Kobe BrownAssists5
- Micah PotterRebounds12
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints38
- James HardenAssists7
- Thomas BryantRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–117
- Q48.1shot clock turnover108–117
- Q433.0Kobe Brown makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jay Huff assists)108–117
- Q455.7Taelon Peter defensive rebound105–117
- Q457.8Keon Ellis misses 26-foot three point jumper105–117
- Q41:10Keon Ellis defensive rebound105–117
- Q41:10Craig Porter Jr. blocks Jalen Slawson 's 3-foot running layup105–117
- Q41:14James Harden lost ball turnover (Jalen Slawson steals)105–117
- Q41:37Kobe Brown makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kam Jones assists)105–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:18Craig Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)IND 77 – 75 CLE · CLE 65% → 74% +9CLE 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q33:13Obi Toppin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Micah Potter assists)IND 85 – 80 CLE · IND 28% → 38% +10IND 28% → 38%+10 pts
- Q32:05Taelon Peter makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Obi Toppin assists)IND 89 – 84 CLE · IND 29% → 40% +11IND 29% → 40%+11 pts
- Q410:55Jalen Slawson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Obi Toppin assists)IND 94 – 92 CLE · IND 22% → 33% +11IND 22% → 33%+11 pts
- Q49:30Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter Jr. assists)IND 96 – 99 CLE · CLE 73% → 83% +10CLE 73% → 83%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -16.5
- ML IND +1000 / CLE -1800
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8
- CLE 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 79.0%, market 91.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -1042
- IND +1042 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 112.0 – 128.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1362 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | −40 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | CLE crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +230 Elo | CLE 79.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 84.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 84.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 91.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 119.34th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 115.214th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.2 | Margin | +4.19th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 116.85th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 112.815th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.6 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–310th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–32 | Road vs home | 24–1410th of 30 |
| 9th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 24th of 301362 | Elo rating | 16067th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–41 | 30–47 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 22–41 |
| Underdog | 33–34 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 40–37 | 37–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 9–7 CLE in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.
- Jan 6CLE 120 @ IND 116Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Dec 1CLE 135 @ IND 119Picked CLE 63%Hit
- Nov 21IND 109 @ CLE 120Picked CLE 85%Hit
- May 13IND 114 @ CLE 105PlayoffsPicked CLE 73%Miss
- May 11CLE 109 @ IND 129PlayoffsPicked CLE 66%Miss
- May 9CLE 126 @ IND 104PlayoffsPicked CLE 66%Hit
- May 6IND 120 @ CLE 119PlayoffsPicked CLE 67%Miss
- May 4IND 121 @ CLE 112PlayoffsPicked CLE 76%Miss