Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints30
- Kam JonesAssists10
- Kobe BrownRebounds9
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints22
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Ryan KalkbrennerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–129
- Q45.2shot clock turnover108–129
- Q427.1Tre Mann defensive rebound108–129
- Q429.1Micah Potter misses layup108–129
- Q440.2Tre Mann makes driving layup (Josh Green assists)108–129
- Q41:00Sion James defensive rebound108–127
- Q41:02Taelon Peter misses dunk108–127
- Q41:07Kobe Brown defensive rebound108–127
- Q41:10Pat Connaughton misses 23-foot three point jumper108–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:20Quenton Jackson makes running layup (Ben Sheppard assists)IND 4 – 0 CHA · IND 12% → 14% +2IND 12% → 14%+2 pts
- Q111:06Brandon Miller makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Kalkbrenner assists)IND 4 – 3 CHA · CHA 86% → 89% +3CHA 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q19:21Ben Sheppard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jay Huff assists)IND 9 – 7 CHA · IND 9% → 12% +3IND 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q19:08LaMelo Ball makes 24-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)IND 9 – 10 CHA · CHA 88% → 91% +3CHA 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q24:47Josh Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)IND 42 – 52 CHA · CHA 93% → 95% +2CHA 93% → 95%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -15.5
- ML IND +900 / CHA -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -10.5
- CHA 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- CHA: Elo 84.7%, market 90.4%
- Fair odds
- CHA -941
- IND +941 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 109.5 – 125.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1366 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −3 | +57 | IND: Usual rotation · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +298 Elo | CHA 84.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 85.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 85.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 90.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 116.214th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 111.48th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.0 | Margin | +4.96th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 116.67th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 111.79th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.7 | Pace | 99.323rd of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–39th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–31 | Road vs home | 20–1920th of 30 |
| 13th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 148630th of 30 |
| 24th of 301366 | Elo rating | 15968th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–40 | 48–29 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 21–12 |
| Underdog | 33–33 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders | 39–37 | 30–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 5–5 CHA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Feb 26CHA 133 @ IND 109Picked CHA 84%Hit
- Jan 8IND 114 @ CHA 112Picked CHA 62%Miss
- Nov 19CHA 118 @ IND 127Picked CHA 54%Miss
- Apr 2CHA 105 @ IND 119Picked IND 86%Hit
- Dec 8CHA 113 @ IND 109Picked IND 84%Miss
- Nov 8IND 83 @ CHA 103Picked IND 70%Miss
- Feb 12IND 102 @ CHA 111Picked IND 71%Miss
- Feb 4IND 115 @ CHA 99Picked IND 75%Hit