Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints25
- Kam JonesAssists7
- Kobe BrownRebounds8
Bulls- Guerschon YabuselePoints20
- Matas BuzelisAssists6
- Matas BuzelisRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game145–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter145–126
- Q423.8shot clock turnover145–126
- Q447.9Leonard Miller makes free throw 1 of 1145–126
- Q447.9Kobe Brown shooting foul145–125
- Q447.9Leonard Miller makes driving layup145–125
- Q459.6Ethan Thompson makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Jalen Slawson assists)145–123
- Q41:01Jalen Slawson defensive rebound142–123
- Q41:03Mac McClung misses two point shot142–123
- Q41:14Ethan Thompson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Kam Jones assists)142–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:41Ethan Thompson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)IND 42 – 33 CHI · IND 56% → 63% +7IND 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q210:24Rob Dillingham makes 29-foot three point jumper (Yuki Kawamura assists)IND 42 – 36 CHI · CHI 37% → 44% +7CHI 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q29:58Rob Dillingham makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 44 – 39 CHI · CHI 39% → 46% +7CHI 39% → 46%+7 pts
- Q28:58Jay Huff makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)IND 49 – 41 CHI · IND 54% → 61% +7IND 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q28:28Jalen Slawson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jay Huff assists)IND 52 – 41 CHI · IND 61% → 68% +7IND 61% → 68%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -3.5
- ML IND +142 / CHI -170
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1.5
- CHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- CHI: Elo 56.1%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- CHI -152
- IND +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 121.5 – 125.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 246.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1347 | 1372 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | −37 | IND: Missing T.J. McConnell −20, Andrew Nembhard −7, Aaron Nesmith −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +43 Elo | CHI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 116.313th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 121.127th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.4 | Margin | −4.723rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 111.223rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 116.023rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.6 | Pace | 104.72nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–822nd of 30 |
| 28th of 306–31 | Road vs home | 18–2021st of 30 |
| 8th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15113rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301347 | Elo rating | 137224th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−19 Elo- T.J. McConnell right hamstring−20 Elo
- Andrew Nembhard lower back injury management−7 Elo
- Aaron Nesmith cervical strain−2 Elo
Bulls
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–40 | 35–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 7–20 |
| Underdog | 32–33 | 28–20 |
| Overs–unders | 38–37 | 35–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 7–4 CHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.
- Jan 28CHI 110 @ IND 113Picked CHI 53%Miss
- Dec 5IND 120 @ CHI 105Picked CHI 63%Miss
- Nov 29CHI 101 @ IND 103Picked CHI 57%Miss
- Mar 10IND 103 @ CHI 121Picked IND 61%Miss
- Mar 2CHI 112 @ IND 127Picked IND 82%Hit
- Jan 8CHI 113 @ IND 129Picked IND 64%Hit
- Dec 6IND 132 @ CHI 123Picked IND 60%Hit
- Mar 27IND 99 @ CHI 125Picked CHI 51%Hit