Phoenix Suns at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Jalen GreenPoints25
- Jalen GreenAssists7
- Oso IghodaroRebounds9
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints25
- LaMelo BallAssists11
- Moussa DiabateRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–127
- Q410.7shot clock turnover107–127
- Q432.4Pat Connaughton defensive rebound107–127
- Q434.6Khaman Maluach misses 23-foot three point jumper107–127
- Q451.4Tre Mann makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Ryan Kalkbrenner assists)107–127
- Q41:15Koby Brea bad pass
turnover (Ryan Kalkbrenner steals)107–125
- Q41:28Jamaree Bouyea offensive rebound107–125
- Q41:31Jamaree Bouyea misses driving floating jump shot107–125
- Q41:47shot clock turnover107–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:42Rasheer Fleming makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 49 – 43 CHA · PHX 44% → 51% +8PHX 44% → 51%+8 pts
- Q27:30Kon Knueppel makes 24-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)PHX 49 – 46 CHA · CHA 49% → 56% +8CHA 49% → 56%+8 pts
- Q26:10Coby White makes 22-foot running jump shot (Miles Bridges assists)PHX 51 – 49 CHA · CHA 51% → 59% +8CHA 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q25:13Miles Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)PHX 53 – 52 CHA · CHA 53% → 61% +8CHA 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q23:12Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three pointerPHX 58 – 57 CHA · CHA 52% → 60% +8CHA 52% → 60%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -5.5
- ML PHX +190 / CHA -230
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -4.5
- CHA 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- CHA: Elo 67.4%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- CHA -202
- PHX +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 111.0 – 116.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | +66 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +126 Elo | CHA 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 67.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 116.114th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 111.47th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +4.77th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 116.47th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 111.710th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.2 | Pace | 99.423rd of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 15th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 19–1920th of 30 |
| 7th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 148530th of 30 |
| 15th of 301530 | Elo rating | 158610th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–30 | 47–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–13 | 20–12 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders | 34–42 | 29–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 4–1 CHA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.