Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints25
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Moussa DiabateRebounds12
Nets- Josh MinottPoints14
- Nolan TraoreAssists4
- Drake PowellRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–86
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–86
- Q41.2shot clock turnover117–86
- Q424.6Tre Mann defensive rebound117–86
- Q427.7E.J. Liddell misses 26-foot three point jumper117–86
- Q436.7Nets defensive team rebound117–86
- Q438.2Tre Mann misses 15-foot turnaround jump shot117–86
- Q456.8Pat Connaughton defensive rebound117–86
- Q41:00Ochai Agbaji misses 23-foot three point jumper117–86
- Q41:13Tre Mann makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Antonio Reeves assists)117–86
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:26Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three pointer (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 3 – 0 BKN · CHA 92% → 94% +2CHA 92% → 94%+2 pts
- Q19:58Noah Clowney makes 5-foot running pullup jump shotCHA 3 – 4 BKN · BKN 8% → 9% +2BKN 8% → 9%+2 pts
- Q19:44Brandon Miller makes 3-foot two point shotCHA 5 – 4 BKN · CHA 91% → 92% +2CHA 91% → 92%+2 pts
- Q18:21LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 10 – 4 BKN · CHA 93% → 95% +2CHA 93% → 95%+2 pts
- Q25:19Drake Powell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)CHA 47 – 39 BKN · BKN 3% → 5% +2BKN 3% → 5%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -18.5
- ML CHA -2100 / BKN +1100
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -13
- CHA 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- CHA: Elo 88.8%, market 92.0%
- Fair odds
- CHA -1145
- BKN +1145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 119.0 – 100.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1302 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +62 | −55 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +361 Elo | CHA 88.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 89.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 89.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 92.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 106.330th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 115.416th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.3 | Margin | −9.128th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 107.230th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 116.425th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.4 | Pace | 98.727th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 10–2630th of 30 |
| 29th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15121st of 30 |
| 10th of 301582 | Elo rating | 130228th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–29 | 36–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–12 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 27–17 | 31–38 |
| Overs–unders | 29–46 | 33–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 4–5 BKN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- Dec 1CHA 103 @ BKN 116Picked CHA 62%Miss
- Oct 22BKN 117 @ CHA 136Picked CHA 65%Hit
- Mar 8BKN 102 @ CHA 105Picked BKN 66%Miss
- Feb 10CHA 89 @ BKN 97Picked BKN 62%Hit
- Jan 29BKN 104 @ CHA 83Picked CHA 52%Miss
- Nov 19CHA 115 @ BKN 116Picked BKN 53%Hit
- Mar 9BKN 99 @ CHA 110Picked BKN 56%Miss
- Nov 30CHA 129 @ BKN 128Picked BKN 73%Miss