Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Dariq WhiteheadPoints21
- Jahmai MashackAssists14
- Jahmai MashackRebounds15
Jazz- Blake HinsonPoints30
- Bez MbengAssists11
- Oscar TshiebweRebounds22
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–147
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–147
- Q416.9Oscar Tshiebwe defensive rebound101–147
- Q416.9Oscar Tshiebwe blocks Dariq Whitehead's two point shot101–147
- Q416.9Dariq Whitehead offensive rebound101–147
- Q422.2Lucas Williamson misses 24-foot running jump shot101–147
- Q426.6Jahmai Mashack defensive rebound101–147
- Q428.3Oscar Tshiebwe misses 9-foot turnaround jump shot101–147
- Q454.6Toby Okani makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jahmai Mashack assists)101–147
- Q41:03Oscar Tshiebwe traveling turnover98–147
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:38Dariq Whitehead makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jahmai Mashack assists)MEM 5 – 2 UTAH · MEM 39% → 45% +6MEM 39% → 45%+6 pts
- Q18:24Lucas Williamson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jahmai Mashack assists)MEM 12 – 8 UTAH · MEM 41% → 47% +6MEM 41% → 47%+6 pts
- Q13:59Blake Hinson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bez Mbeng assists)MEM 19 – 21 UTAH · UTAH 58% → 65% +7UTAH 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q12:02Dariq Whitehead makes 23-foot three point jumper (Adama Bal assists)MEM 26 – 29 UTAH · MEM 27% → 33% +6MEM 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q210:18John Konchar makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bez Mbeng assists)MEM 34 – 37 UTAH · UTAH 60% → 67% +7UTAH 60% → 67%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jazz 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH -4.5
- ML MEM +150 / UTAH -180
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -1.5
- UTAH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- UTAH: Elo 55.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -161
- MEM +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 121.5 – 126.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 247.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1342 | 1256 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −114 | −25 | MEM: Missing Cedric Coward −26, Cam Spencer −21, GG Jackson −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Kyle Filipowski −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +39 Elo | UTAH 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 67.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 117.39th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 126.330th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.2 | Margin | −8.927th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 111.821st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 120.330th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 104.13rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–27 | Road vs home | 13–2726th of 30 |
| 5th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15121st of 30 |
| 26th of 301342 | Elo rating | 125629th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−114 Elo- Cedric Coward lower back soreness−26 Elo
- Cam Spencer lower back soreness−21 Elo
- GG Jackson left knee soreness−11 Elo
- Olivier-Maxence Prosper right ankle soreness−7 Elo
Jazz
−25 Elo- Kyle Filipowski lower back injury management−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–43 | 40–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 27–34 | 35–37 |
| Overs–unders | 41–39 | 48–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 7–3 UTAH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Feb 20UTAH 114 @ MEM 123Picked MEM 55%Hit
- Dec 23MEM 137 @ UTAH 128Picked MEM 61%Hit
- Dec 12UTAH 130 @ MEM 126Picked MEM 71%Miss
- Mar 25MEM 140 @ UTAH 103Picked MEM 81%Hit
- Mar 12UTAH 115 @ MEM 122Picked MEM 81%Hit
- Jan 25UTAH 103 @ MEM 125Picked MEM 81%Hit
- Oct 23MEM 126 @ UTAH 124Picked MEM 55%Hit
- Nov 29UTAH 91 @ MEM 105Picked MEM 53%Hit