Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Kennedy ChandlerPoints31
- John KoncharAssists10
- John KoncharRebounds10
Pelicans- Jeremiah FearsPoints40
- Derik QueenAssists7
- Derik QueenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game137–156
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter137–156
- Q45.5shot clock turnover137–156
- Q427.7Kennedy Chandler makes free throw 2 of 2137–156
- Q427.7Kennedy Chandler makes free throw 1 of 2136–156
- Q427.7Trey Alexander shooting foul135–156
- Q431.7Trey Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2135–156
- Q431.7Trey Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2135–155
- Q431.7Bez Mbeng personal foul135–154
- Q435.7Blake Hinson makes 23-foot three pointer135–154
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:38Jeremiah Fears makes 22-foot three point jumper (Derik Queen assists)UTAH 57 – 54 NO · NO 47% → 56% +8NO 47% → 56%+8 pts
- Q22:03Micah Peavy makes 23-foot running jump shot (Derik Queen assists)UTAH 57 – 57 NO · NO 55% → 64% +8NO 55% → 64%+8 pts
- Q21:53John Konchar makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Filipowski assists)UTAH 60 – 57 NO · UTAH 37% → 45% +8UTAH 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q241.2Bez Mbeng makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kennedy Chandler assists)UTAH 67 – 61 NO · UTAH 45% → 54% +9UTAH 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q39:39Jordan Poole makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotUTAH 71 – 71 NO · NO 53% → 62% +9NO 53% → 62%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NO -6.5
- ML UTAH +200 / NO -245
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -5
- NO 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- NO: Elo 69.5%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- NO -213
- UTAH +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 118.0 – 124.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1265 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | −11 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +143 Elo | NO 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 75.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 75.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 114.818th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.9 | Points allowed | 119.423rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.8 | Margin | −4.521st of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 111.920th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.2 | Defense rating | 116.324th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.9 | Pace | 102.011th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–31 | Road vs home | 16–2423rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 30 |
| 29th of 301265 | Elo rating | 137922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–39 | 43–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 12–4 |
| Underdog | 35–36 | 31–32 |
| Overs–unders | 47–32 | 38–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–7 NO in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Feb 28NO 115 @ UTAH 105Picked NO 66%Hit
- Feb 26NO 129 @ UTAH 118Picked NO 68%Hit
- Mar 2NO 128 @ UTAH 121Picked NO 72%Hit
- Jan 20UTAH 119 @ NO 123Picked NO 82%Hit
- Jan 17UTAH 123 @ NO 136Picked NO 84%Hit
- Jan 23UTAH 124 @ NO 153Picked NO 55%Hit
- Dec 28UTAH 105 @ NO 112Picked NO 66%Hit
- Nov 27NO 112 @ UTAH 114Picked NO 61%Miss