Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Desmond BanePoints27
- Jalen SuggsAssists8
- Paolo BancheroRebounds16
Pelicans- Saddiq BeyPoints32
- Jeremiah FearsAssists7
- Yves MissiRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–108
- Q42.8Paolo Banchero defensive rebound112–108
- Q45.4Jordan Hawkins misses three point shot112–108
- Q49.5Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Yves Missi112–108
- Q49.5Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2112–108
- Q49.5Magic offensive team rebound111–108
- Q49.5Desmond Bane misses free throw 1 of 2111–108
- Q49.5Saddiq Bey personal foul111–108
- Q410.2Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2111–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:59Desmond Bane makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jevon Carter assists)ORL 84 – 88 NO · ORL 30% → 42% +12ORL 30% → 42%+12 pts
- Q45:42Jalen Suggs makes 22-foot running jump shot (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 98 – 96 NO · ORL 51% → 68% +17ORL 51% → 68%+17 pts
- Q44:56Saddiq Bey makes 27-foot three pointer (Jeremiah Fears assists)ORL 98 – 99 NO · NO 32% → 50% +19NO 32% → 50%+19 pts
- Q44:31Desmond Bane makes 29-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 101 – 99 NO · ORL 49% → 69% +20ORL 49% → 69%+20 pts
- Q43:23Wendell Carter Jr. makes two point shotORL 103 – 101 NO · ORL 55% → 70% +15ORL 55% → 70%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -6.5
- ML ORL -250 / NO +205
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -4.5
- ORL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- ORL: Elo 66.5%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- ORL -218
- NO +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 121.5 – 115.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1383 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | −13 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | NO crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +119 Elo | ORL 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 68.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 114.917th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 119.424th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −4.521st of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 112.020th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 116.423rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.911th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 16th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 16–2323rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 30 |
| 20th of 301474 | Elo rating | 138322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–42 | 42–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–27 | 12–4 |
| Underdog | 15–15 | 30–32 |
| Overs–unders | 42–35 | 38–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 5–0 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.