Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints23
- Draymond GreenAssists8
- Gui SantosRebounds5
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints28
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Walker KesslerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–130
- Q46.7Will Richard makes tip in dunk105–130
- Q46.7Will Richard offensive rebound103–130
- Q46.7Malevy Leons misses 7-foot two point shot103–130
- Q426.8Malevy Leons defensive rebound103–130
- Q426.8Chris Manon misses tip shot103–130
- Q430.0Chris Manon offensive rebound103–130
- Q430.0Kevon Looney misses 8-foot fade away jump shot103–130
- Q455.9LJ Cryer makes running layup103–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:36Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ziaire Williams assists)GS 13 – 13 LAL · LAL 59% → 65% +6LAL 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q11:24Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 29 – 31 LAL · LAL 62% → 69% +7LAL 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q130.4Jake LaRavia makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)GS 33 – 34 LAL · LAL 60% → 67% +7LAL 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q210:24Jake LaRavia makes 26-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)GS 35 – 39 LAL · LAL 66% → 73% +6LAL 66% → 73%+6 pts
- Q24:50Gui Santos makes 24-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)GS 46 – 49 LAL · GS 23% → 30% +7GS 23% → 30%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lakers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -6.5
- ML GS +185 / LAL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -6
- LAL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- LAL: Elo 72.8%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- LAL -197
- GS +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 114.0 – 120.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +40 | Worth 40 Elo in the NBA |
| Injuries | −34 | −1 | Key absences: Kristaps Porzingis, Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry |
| Elo ratings | LAL +171 Elo | LAL 72.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 72.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.6 | Points scored | 116.311th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 114.611th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.814th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 116.28th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 114.419th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.0 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 20th of 3015–26 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301469 | Elo rating | 15688th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  GS |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–47 | 51–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–29 | 31–19 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders | 48–34 | 46–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 5–7 LAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- Apr 9LAL 119 @ GS 103Picked GS 52%Miss
- Feb 28LAL 129 @ GS 101Picked LAL 60%Hit
- Feb 7GS 99 @ LAL 105Picked LAL 54%Hit
- Oct 21GS 119 @ LAL 109Picked GS 58%Hit
- Apr 3GS 123 @ LAL 116Picked LAL 50%Miss
- Feb 6GS 112 @ LAL 120Picked LAL 62%Hit
- Jan 25LAL 118 @ GS 108Picked LAL 51%Hit
- Dec 25LAL 115 @ GS 113Picked GS 61%Miss