Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Ajay MitchellPoints24
- Ajay MitchellAssists10
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Lakers- Rui HachimuraPoints21
- Austin ReavesAssists9
- Adou ThieroRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–108
- Q419.9Nick Smith Jr. makes 12-foot two point shot (Dalton Knecht assists)131–108
- Q431.0Dalton Knecht defensive rebound131–106
- Q435.7Kenrich Williams misses 27-foot three point jumper131–106
- Q437.6Isaiah Joe offensive rebound131–106
- Q440.7Kenrich Williams misses 27-foot running jump shot131–106
- Q444.7Nikola Topic defensive rebound131–106
- Q446.9Maxi Kleber misses alley oop layup131–106
- Q454.8Adou Thiero defensive rebound131–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:01Luke Kennard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)OKC 49 – 54 LAL · LAL 35% → 43% +8LAL 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q311:14Luguentz Dort makes 29-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)OKC 60 – 59 LAL · OKC 63% → 71% +8OKC 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q310:34Ajay Mitchell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 63 – 61 LAL · OKC 66% → 74% +8OKC 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q38:18Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)OKC 70 – 65 LAL · OKC 73% → 81% +7OKC 73% → 81%+7 pts
- Q345.2Isaiah Joe makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 87 – 79 LAL · OKC 81% → 88% +7OKC 81% → 88%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -9.5
- ML OKC -380 / LAL +300
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5
- OKC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 69.2%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- OKC -317
- LAL +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 110.0 – 100.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 210.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1731 | 1626 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | −31 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +141 Elo | OKC 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 78.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 77.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 116.311th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 114.611th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.1 | Margin | +1.814th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 116.28th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.8 | Defense rating | 114.419th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–10 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149423rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301731 | Elo rating | 16266th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–45 | 50–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 40–43 | 31–19 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 19–21 |
| Overs–unders | 48–40 | 44–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 9–4 LAL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.
- May 7LAL 107 @ OKC 125PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- May 5LAL 90 @ OKC 108PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 7OKC 123 @ LAL 87Picked OKC 92%Hit
- Apr 2LAL 96 @ OKC 139Picked OKC 76%Hit
- Feb 9OKC 119 @ LAL 110Picked OKC 68%Hit
- Nov 12LAL 92 @ OKC 121Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Apr 8LAL 120 @ OKC 136Picked OKC 77%Hit
- Apr 6LAL 126 @ OKC 99Picked OKC 76%Miss