Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Deandre AytonPoints19
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Deandre AytonRebounds10
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints23
- Amen ThompsonAssists7
- Tari EasonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–115
- Q43.2JD Davison defensive rebound96–115
- Q46.7Nick Smith Jr. misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot96–115
- Q417.5Bronny James offensive rebound96–115
- Q420.0Dalton Knecht misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot96–115
- Q432.6JD Davison makes free throw 2 of 296–115
- Q432.6JD Davison makes free throw 1 of 296–114
- Q432.6Maxi Kleber shooting foul96–113
- Q449.3Bronny James makes driving layup96–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:19Reed Sheppard makes 27-foot three pointerLAL 11 – 11 HOU · HOU 52% → 59% +7HOU 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q11:12Aaron Holiday makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Tari Eason assists)LAL 19 – 24 HOU · HOU 63% → 69% +6HOU 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q28:12Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bronny James assists)LAL 28 – 33 HOU · LAL 24% → 30% +6LAL 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q24:24Reed Sheppard makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 34 – 41 HOU · HOU 67% → 74% +7HOU 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q22:42Josh Okogie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)LAL 40 – 46 HOU · HOU 65% → 72% +7HOU 65% → 72%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3.5
- ML LAL +136 / HOU -162
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- HOU 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -146
- LAL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 101.5 – 105.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 206.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1647 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −62 | −39 | LAL: Missing Austin Reaves −35 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +3 Elo | LAL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 115.218th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 110.04th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +5.26th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 116.09th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 110.85th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.9 | Pace | 98.129th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
| 24th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149325th of 30 |
| 5th of 301647 | Elo rating | 158511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−62 Elo- Austin Reaves left oblique−35 Elo
Rockets
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–36 | 36–49 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–18 | 30–45 |
| Underdog | 18–18 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 42–43 | 40–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 9–4 HOU in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.
- Apr 24LAL 112 @ HOU 108PlayoffsPicked HOU 69%Miss
- Apr 21HOU 94 @ LAL 101PlayoffsPicked HOU 67%Miss
- Apr 18HOU 98 @ LAL 107PlayoffsPicked HOU 55%Miss
- Mar 18LAL 124 @ HOU 116Picked HOU 54%Miss
- Mar 16LAL 100 @ HOU 92Picked LAL 52%Hit
- Dec 25HOU 119 @ LAL 96Picked HOU 53%Hit
- Apr 11HOU 109 @ LAL 140Picked LAL 88%Hit
- Mar 31HOU 98 @ LAL 104Picked LAL 63%Hit