Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Oscar TshiebwePoints29
- Bez MbengAssists9
- Oscar TshiebweRebounds17
Lakers- Deandre AytonPoints22
- Marcus SmartAssists10
- Deandre AytonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–131
- Q40.8shot clock turnover107–131
- Q425.0Oscar Tshiebwe makes two point shot107–131
- Q425.0Oscar Tshiebwe offensive rebound105–131
- Q429.2Cody Williams misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot105–131
- Q440.4Adou Thiero makes dunk (Dalton Knecht assists)105–131
- Q457.0Oscar Tshiebwe makes driving dunk105–129
- Q457.4Oscar Tshiebwe offensive rebound103–129
- Q41:00Oscar Tshiebwe misses free throw 1 of 1103–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:45Brice Sensabaugh makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bez Mbeng assists)UTAH 25 – 32 LAL · UTAH 5% → 8% +2UTAH 5% → 8%+2 pts
- Q211:06Marcus Smart makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)UTAH 25 – 35 LAL · LAL 92% → 95% +2LAL 92% → 95%+2 pts
- Q28:34Brice Sensabaugh makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cody Williams assists)UTAH 29 – 36 LAL · UTAH 5% → 8% +2UTAH 5% → 8%+2 pts
- Q25:07Bez Mbeng makes 24-foot three point jumper (Blake Hinson assists)UTAH 36 – 45 LAL · UTAH 4% → 6% +2UTAH 4% → 6%+2 pts
- Q24:06Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)UTAH 36 – 48 LAL · LAL 93% → 96% +2LAL 93% → 96%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -14.5
- ML UTAH +700 / LAL -1100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -9
- LAL 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- LAL: Elo 81.5%, market 88.0%
- Fair odds
- LAL -733
- UTAH +733 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 112.5 – 127.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1282 | 1615 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −100 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +258 Elo | LAL 81.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 80.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 80.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 88.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.7 | Points scored | 116.211th of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.0 | Points allowed | 114.712th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.2 | Margin | +1.514th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 116.18th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.8 | Defense rating | 114.620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.3 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–32 | Road vs home | 27–138th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 28th of 301282 | Elo rating | 16157th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−100 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–40 | 45–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 30–18 |
| Underdog | 35–37 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders | 49–32 | 41–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–8 LAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Dec 18LAL 143 @ UTAH 135Picked LAL 77%Hit
- Nov 23LAL 108 @ UTAH 106Picked LAL 77%Hit
- Nov 18UTAH 126 @ LAL 140Picked LAL 84%Hit
- Feb 12LAL 119 @ UTAH 131Picked LAL 77%Miss
- Feb 10UTAH 113 @ LAL 132Picked LAL 84%Hit
- Dec 1LAL 105 @ UTAH 104Picked LAL 64%Hit
- Nov 19UTAH 118 @ LAL 124Picked LAL 82%Hit
- Feb 14LAL 138 @ UTAH 122Picked UTAH 65%Miss