Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints12
- Royce O'NealeAssists3
- Oso IghodaroRebounds10
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints28
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- Jarred VanderbiltRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game73–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter73–101
- Q419.8Chris Manon makes free throw 2 of 273–101
- Q419.8Lakers offensive team rebound73–100
- Q419.8Chris Manon misses free throw 1 of 273–100
- Q419.8Koby Brea shooting foul73–100
- Q441.9Khaman Maluach makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Koby Brea assists)73–100
- Q457.0Dalton Knecht makes free throw 2 of 271–100
- Q457.0Dalton Knecht makes free throw 1 of 271–99
- Q457.0Rasheer Fleming shooting foul71–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:07Grayson Allen makes 28-foot three point jumperPHX 6 – 7 LAL · PHX 46% → 52% +6PHX 46% → 52%+6 pts
- Q18:16LeBron James makes 24-foot three point jumperPHX 10 – 13 LAL · LAL 46% → 52% +6LAL 46% → 52%+6 pts
- Q16:15Luke Kennard makes 24-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)PHX 14 – 20 LAL · LAL 53% → 59% +7LAL 53% → 59%+7 pts
- Q27:14Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three pointer (Oso Ighodaro assists)PHX 36 – 35 LAL · PHX 48% → 56% +8PHX 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q37:31Rui Hachimura makes 24-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)PHX 52 – 65 LAL · LAL 77% → 84% +7LAL 77% → 84%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -2.5
- ML PHX -130 / LAL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1
- PHX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- PHX: Elo 53.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHX -119
- LAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 110.0 – 107.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1592 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −12 | −110 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +23 Elo | PHX 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 61.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 116.311th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 115.214th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +1.115th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 116.18th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 114.920th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.2 | Pace | 100.022nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 26–138th of 30 |
| 10th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 17th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15929th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−110 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–34 | 44–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–15 | 30–18 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 36–44 | 41–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 7–6 LAL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.
- Feb 26LAL 110 @ PHX 113Picked LAL 66%Miss
- Dec 23LAL 108 @ PHX 132Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Dec 14LAL 116 @ PHX 114Picked PHX 51%Miss
- Dec 1PHX 125 @ LAL 108Picked LAL 66%Miss
- Mar 16PHX 96 @ LAL 107Picked LAL 57%Hit
- Nov 26LAL 100 @ PHX 127Picked PHX 56%Hit
- Oct 28LAL 105 @ PHX 109Picked PHX 60%Hit
- Oct 25PHX 116 @ LAL 123Picked LAL 52%Hit