Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- John PoulakidasPoints23
- Ryan NembhardAssists7
- Cooper FlaggRebounds11
Suns- Devin BookerPoints37
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Khaman MaluachRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–112
- Q413.7Amir Coffey enters the game for Oso Ighodaro107–112
- Q413.7Royce O'Neale enters the game for Ryan Dunn107–112
- Q413.75 second violation107–112
- Q413.7Mavericks Full timeout107–112
- Q413.7Dillon Brooks makes driving layup107–112
- Q428.6Moussa Cisse bad pass
turnover (Ryan Dunn steals)107–110
- Q429.2Moussa Cisse offensive rebound107–110
- Q433.6Oso Ighodaro blocks Moussa Cisse's layup107–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:35Marvin Bagley III makes 23-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)DAL 92 – 93 PHX · DAL 18% → 29% +11DAL 18% → 29%+11 pts
- Q48:18Max Christie makes 23-foot three pointer (Ryan Nembhard assists)DAL 95 – 93 PHX · DAL 30% → 44% +14DAL 30% → 44%+14 pts
- Q47:44Devin Booker makes 25-foot three pointerDAL 95 – 96 PHX · PHX 56% → 70% +15PHX 56% → 70%+15 pts
- Q41:13Devin Booker makes 25-foot three pointer (Dillon Brooks assists)DAL 104 – 110 PHX · PHX 87% → 98% +11PHX 87% → 98%+11 pts
- Q41:08John Poulakidas makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dwight Powell assists)DAL 107 – 110 PHX · DAL 1% → 12% +11DAL 1% → 12%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -12.5
- ML DAL +500 / PHX -700
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -9
- PHX 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- PHX: Elo 80.6%, market 84.0%
- Fair odds
- PHX -525
- DAL +525 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 111.0 – 123.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1345 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | PHX and DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −14 | +18 | DAL: Missing Naji Marshall −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +247 Elo | PHX 80.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 78.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 79.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 84.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 112.826th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 111.48th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.7 | Margin | +1.415th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 111.79th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.5 | Pace | 99.223rd of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–28 | Road vs home | 24–1613th of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15086th of 30 |
| 26th of 301345 | Elo rating | 151117th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−14 Elo- Naji Marshall left hip injury−7 Elo
Suns
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–45 | 46–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 23–14 |
| Underdog | 26–30 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders | 35–44 | 36–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–6 PHX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Feb 10DAL 111 @ PHX 120Picked PHX 74%Hit
- Nov 12PHX 123 @ DAL 114Picked PHX 54%Hit
- Mar 9PHX 125 @ DAL 116Picked PHX 70%Hit
- Dec 27DAL 98 @ PHX 89Picked PHX 51%Miss
- Nov 8PHX 114 @ DAL 113Picked DAL 57%Miss
- Oct 26DAL 102 @ PHX 114Picked DAL 61%Miss
- Feb 22PHX 113 @ DAL 123Picked DAL 62%Hit
- Jan 24PHX 132 @ DAL 109Picked PHX 56%Hit