Phoenix Suns at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints30
- Devin BookerAssists4
- Mark WilliamsRebounds8
Bulls- Tre JonesPoints29
- Tre JonesAssists6
- Leonard MillerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–110
- Q41.2shot clock turnover120–110
- Q423.8Mark Williams defensive rebound120–110
- Q426.6Isaac Okoro misses running pullup jump shot120–110
- Q429.6Isaac Okoro defensive rebound120–110
- Q432.5Jalen Green misses free throw 2 of 2120–110
- Q432.5Yuki Kawamura enters the game for Tre Jones120–110
- Q432.5Jalen Green makes free throw 1 of 2120–110
- Q432.5Collin Sexton personal foul119–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:35Collin Sexton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)PHX 97 – 94 CHI · CHI 12% → 22% +10CHI 12% → 22%+10 pts
- Q47:13Jordan Goodwin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 100 – 94 CHI · PHX 78% → 88% +10PHX 78% → 88%+10 pts
- Q43:26Tre Jones makes running layupPHX 109 – 108 CHI · CHI 20% → 33% +13CHI 20% → 33%+13 pts
- Q43:03Dillon Brooks makes 9-foot two point shotPHX 111 – 108 CHI · PHX 67% → 80% +13PHX 67% → 80%+13 pts
- Q42:23Dillon Brooks makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)PHX 114 – 108 CHI · PHX 82% → 95% +13PHX 82% → 95%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -11.5
- ML PHX -625 / CHI +455
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -8
- PHX 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- PHX: Elo 77.8%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- PHX -478
- CHI +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 127.5 – 116.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1347 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | −48 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Missing Josh Giddey −31 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +218 Elo | PHX 77.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 78.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 78.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 116.214th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 121.628th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −5.423rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 111.023rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 116.524th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.2 | Pace | 104.72nd of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 15th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 18–2121st of 30 |
| 5th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15123rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301520 | Elo rating | 134726th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−48 Elo- Josh Giddey left hamstring strain−31 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–31 | 35–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–13 | 7–21 |
| Underdog | 23–18 | 28–21 |
| Overs–unders | 35–42 | 36–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 4–1 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.