Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Collin SextonPoints19
- Tre JonesAssists8
- Leonard MillerRebounds6
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints31
- Jalen BrunsonAssists10
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–136
- Q40.9shot clock turnover96–136
- Q424.9Leonard Miller makes 1-foot layup (Yuki Kawamura assists)96–136
- Q436.8Jose Alvarado out of bounds bad pass turnover94–136
- Q453.5Patrick Williams makes 25-foot three pointer94–136
- Q41:00Pacome Dadiet makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)91–136
- Q41:08Mohamed Diawara defensive rebound91–133
- Q41:10Mac McClung misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot91–133
- Q41:25Jose Alvarado makes 10-foot pullup jump shot (Mohamed Diawara assists)91–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:15Mitchell Robinson makes tip shotCHI 0 – 2 NY · NY 89% → 90% +2NY 89% → 90%+2 pts
- Q110:53Jalen Brunson makes 3-foot two point shotCHI 1 – 4 NY · NY 89% → 91% +2NY 89% → 91%+2 pts
- Q19:31OG Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumperCHI 1 – 7 NY · NY 91% → 93% +2NY 91% → 93%+2 pts
- Q19:06Mitchell Robinson makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (OG Anunoby assists)CHI 1 – 9 NY · NY 93% → 95% +1NY 93% → 95%+1 pts
- Q17:21Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)CHI 1 – 14 NY · NY 96% → 97% +1NY 96% → 97%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -13.5
- ML CHI +750 / NY -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -10.5
- NY 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- NY: Elo 84.1%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- NY -785
- CHI +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 111.5 – 125.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1354 | 1627 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | −31 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Karl-Anthony Towns −39 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | CHI crossed 1 time zone and NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +289 Elo | NY 84.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 84.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 84.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 116.810th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.4 | Points allowed | 110.75th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.9 | Margin | +6.15th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 117.43rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 111.37th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.8 | Pace | 98.926th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–310th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–26 | Road vs home | 27–94th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 30 |
| 26th of 301354 | Elo rating | 16275th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−31 Elo- Karl-Anthony Towns right elbow−39 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–41 | 38–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 7–21 | 31–32 |
| Underdog | 28–20 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 36–40 | 38–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 4–6 NY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Feb 22NY 105 @ CHI 99Picked NY 76%Hit
- Nov 2CHI 116 @ NY 128Picked NY 72%Hit
- Oct 31NY 125 @ CHI 135Picked NY 64%Miss
- Feb 20CHI 111 @ NY 113Picked NY 78%Hit
- Jan 4NY 126 @ CHI 139Picked NY 66%Miss
- Nov 13CHI 124 @ NY 123Picked NY 75%Miss
- Apr 14CHI 119 @ NY 120Picked NY 68%Hit
- Apr 9NY 128 @ CHI 117Picked NY 54%Hit