Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints24
- Amen ThompsonAssists8
- Alperen SengunRebounds14
Suns- Devin BookerPoints31
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Mark WilliamsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–105
- Q42.4shot clock turnover119–105
- Q426.4Amen Thompson makes driving layup119–105
- Q446.7Tari Eason defensive rebound117–105
- Q448.6Jamaree Bouyea misses driving layup117–105
- Q41:04Josh Okogie enters the game for Kevin Durant117–105
- Q41:04Rasheer Fleming enters the game for Jordan Goodwin117–105
- Q41:04Koby Brea enters the game for Mark Williams117–105
- Q41:04Ryan Dunn enters the game for Jalen Green117–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:57Jabari Smith Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 62 – 60 PHX · HOU 48% → 57% +9HOU 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q36:54Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 65 – 68 PHX · HOU 32% → 41% +9HOU 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q36:23Kevin Durant makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tari Eason assists)HOU 68 – 71 PHX · HOU 32% → 41% +9HOU 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q31:55Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 79 – 79 PHX · HOU 39% → 51% +11HOU 39% → 51%+11 pts
- Q38.4Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)HOU 81 – 84 PHX · PHX 49% → 61% +12PHX 49% → 61%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -1.5
- ML HOU -118 / PHX -102
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 50.5%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -107
- PHX +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 111.5 – 110.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | +36 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +4 Elo | HOU 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 112.925th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 111.37th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.8 | Margin | +1.614th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 113.316th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 111.69th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.9 | Pace | 99.223rd of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 3021–19 | Road vs home | 24–1512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 30 |
| 9th of 301597 | Elo rating | 152415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–45 | 46–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–41 | 23–14 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders | 36–42 | 35–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 8–2 PHX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Jan 5PHX 97 @ HOU 100Picked HOU 72%Hit
- Dec 5PHX 98 @ HOU 117Picked HOU 76%Hit
- Nov 24HOU 114 @ PHX 92Picked HOU 69%Hit
- Mar 30HOU 148 @ PHX 109Picked HOU 57%Hit
- Mar 12PHX 104 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 61%Hit
- Feb 12PHX 111 @ HOU 119Picked HOU 77%Hit
- Mar 2HOU 118 @ PHX 109Picked PHX 73%Miss
- Feb 29HOU 105 @ PHX 110Picked PHX 72%Hit