Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints23
- Amen ThompsonAssists9
- Alperen SengunRebounds11
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints28
- LeBron JamesAssists7
- LeBron JamesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–101
- Q48.5Rui Hachimura defensive rebound94–101
- Q412.3Jabari Smith Jr. misses 33-foot three point pullup jump shot94–101
- Q414.3Reed Sheppard enters the game for Alperen Sengun94–101
- Q414.3Rockets Full timeout94–101
- Q414.3Luke Kennard makes free throw 2 of 294–101
- Q414.3Alperen Sengun enters the game for Josh Okogie94–100
- Q414.3Luke Kennard makes free throw 1 of 294–100
- Q414.3Amen Thompson personal take foul94–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:47Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)HOU 59 – 67 LAL · LAL 56% → 65% +10LAL 56% → 65%+10 pts
- Q46:38Josh Okogie makes 23-foot running jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)HOU 82 – 85 LAL · HOU 25% → 40% +15HOU 25% → 40%+15 pts
- Q46:09LeBron James makes driving layupHOU 82 – 87 LAL · LAL 61% → 72% +11LAL 61% → 72%+11 pts
- Q43:41Rui Hachimura makes 17-foot step back jumpshot (Marcus Smart assists)HOU 85 – 91 LAL · LAL 74% → 84% +11LAL 74% → 84%+11 pts
- Q42:23Marcus Smart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)HOU 87 – 95 LAL · LAL 86% → 96% +10LAL 86% → 96%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -5.5
- ML HOU -230 / LAL +190
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.3%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -202
- LAL +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 107.5 – 102.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1601 | 1631 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −78 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +23 Elo | HOU 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 116.311th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 114.611th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +1.814th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 116.28th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 114.419th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.1 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
| 26th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149423rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301601 | Elo rating | 16317th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–47 | 47–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–43 | 31–18 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders | 39–44 | 41–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–7 LAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Apr 18HOU 98 @ LAL 107PlayoffsPicked HOU 55%Miss
- Mar 18LAL 124 @ HOU 116Picked HOU 54%Miss
- Mar 16LAL 100 @ HOU 92Picked LAL 52%Hit
- Dec 25HOU 119 @ LAL 96Picked HOU 53%Hit
- Apr 11HOU 109 @ LAL 140Picked LAL 88%Hit
- Mar 31HOU 98 @ LAL 104Picked LAL 63%Hit
- Jan 5LAL 115 @ HOU 119Picked HOU 62%Hit
- Jan 29LAL 119 @ HOU 135Picked LAL 54%Miss