Philadelphia 76ers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints24
- VJ EdgecombeAssists8
- Andre DrummondRebounds15
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints29
- Kevin DurantAssists5
- Alperen SengunRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–113
- Q44.2Amen Thompson defensive rebound102–113
- Q46.5Tyrese Maxey misses 31-foot three point jumper102–113
- Q414.3Jabari Smith Jr. makes 2-foot running dunk (Tari Eason assists)102–113
- Q420.8Kevin Durant defensive rebound102–111
- Q421.2Quentin Grimes misses 9-foot turnaround jump shot102–111
- Q432.4Quentin Grimes defensive rebound102–111
- Q432.4Amen Thompson misses free throw 2 of 2102–111
- Q432.4Tari Eason enters the game for Alperen Sengun102–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:45Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 10 – 8 HOU · PHI 30% → 35% +6PHI 30% → 35%+6 pts
- Q15:35Tari Eason makes 24-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)PHI 10 – 17 HOU · HOU 75% → 80% +5HOU 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q15:13Quentin Grimes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)PHI 13 – 17 HOU · PHI 20% → 25% +5PHI 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q14:56Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 13 – 20 HOU · HOU 75% → 80% +5HOU 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q44:41Kevin Durant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)PHI 94 – 104 HOU · HOU 91% → 97% +6HOU 91% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML PHI +210 / HOU -258
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 67.0%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -223
- PHI +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 110.0 – 116.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1609 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | +16 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +123 Elo | HOU 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 71.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 114.819th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 109.94th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +4.97th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 115.89th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 110.85th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.6 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 12th of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 28–105th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149227th of 30 |
| 15th of 301522 | Elo rating | 16098th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–36 | 34–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–16 | 28–41 |
| Underdog | 17–20 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 40–39 | 37–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–2 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.