Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Dariq WhiteheadPoints26
- Jahmai MashackAssists11
- Rayan RupertRebounds12
Rockets- Clint CapelaPoints23
- JD DavisonAssists7
- Clint CapelaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–132
- Q414.8Dariq Whitehead makes 4-foot two point shot101–132
- Q421.0Dariq Whitehead defensive rebound99–132
- Q424.2JD Davison misses 37-foot three point shot99–132
- Q436.2Tristen Newton offensive rebound99–132
- Q439.2Jeff Green misses 28-foot three point jumper99–132
- Q451.1Rockets offensive team rebound99–132
- Q452.6Jeff Green misses 29-foot three point jumper99–132
- Q41:06JD Davison defensive rebound99–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:48Dariq Whitehead makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotMEM 8 – 7 HOU · MEM 11% → 14% +3MEM 11% → 14%+3 pts
- Q18:08Dariq Whitehead makes 26-foot three point jumper (Rayan Rupert assists)MEM 11 – 7 HOU · MEM 14% → 18% +4MEM 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q14:13Lucas Williamson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jahmai Mashack assists)MEM 19 – 19 HOU · MEM 11% → 14% +3MEM 11% → 14%+3 pts
- Q13:42Aaron Holiday makes 26-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)MEM 21 – 22 HOU · HOU 83% → 87% +4HOU 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q12:39Dariq Whitehead makes 25-foot three pointer (Jahmai Mashack assists)MEM 26 – 22 HOU · MEM 16% → 21% +5MEM 16% → 21%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -14.5
- ML MEM +700 / HOU -1100
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -11.5
- HOU 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 86.5%, market 88.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -733
- MEM +733 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 108.0 – 122.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1316 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −132 | −148 | MEM: Missing Cedric Coward −27, Cam Spencer −22, GG Jackson −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Missing Amen Thompson −51 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +322 Elo | HOU 86.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 91.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 90.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 88.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 115.018th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 110.14th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.7 | Margin | +4.97th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 115.99th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 111.05th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.5 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–28 | Road vs home | 29–116th of 30 |
| 9th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 27th of 301316 | Elo rating | 16069th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−132 Elo- Cedric Coward low back soreness−27 Elo
- Cam Spencer lower back injury management−22 Elo
- GG Jackson left knee injury management−12 Elo
Rockets
−148 Elo- Amen Thompson rest−51 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–44 | 35–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 29–42 |
| Underdog | 27–35 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 42–39 | 38–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–9 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.
- Mar 27HOU 119 @ MEM 109Picked HOU 87%Hit
- Jan 26MEM 99 @ HOU 108Picked HOU 80%Hit
- Nov 5HOU 124 @ MEM 109Picked HOU 72%Hit
- Jan 30HOU 119 @ MEM 120Picked MEM 61%Hit
- Jan 13MEM 118 @ HOU 120Picked HOU 56%Hit
- Jan 9HOU 119 @ MEM 115Picked MEM 57%Miss
- Oct 25MEM 108 @ HOU 128Picked HOU 60%Hit
- Feb 14HOU 113 @ MEM 121Picked MEM 53%Hit