Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Terrence Shannon Jr.Points23
- Kyle AndersonAssists9
- Jaden McDanielsRebounds7
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints41
- Alperen SengunAssists8
- Amen ThompsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–132
- Q42.4Amen Thompson makes 14-foot fade away jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)136–132
- Q46.3Donte DiVincenzo out of bounds bad pass turnover136–130
- Q46.7Kyle Anderson defensive rebound136–130
- Q410.1Jabari Smith Jr. misses 23-foot jumper136–130
- Q418.1Alperen Sengun defensive rebound136–130
- Q419.9Kyle Anderson misses free throw 2 of 2136–130
- Q419.9Alperen Sengun enters the game for Tari Eason136–130
- Q419.9Kyle Anderson makes free throw 1 of 2136–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:18Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three pointer (Ayo Dosunmu assists)MIN 110 – 110 HOU · MIN 24% → 35% +12MIN 24% → 35%+12 pts
- Q48:09Mike Conley makes 25-foot running jump shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 116 – 112 HOU · MIN 42% → 57% +15MIN 42% → 57%+15 pts
- Q46:02Donte DiVincenzo makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 123 – 114 HOU · MIN 72% → 85% +13MIN 72% → 85%+13 pts
- Q44:36Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)MIN 125 – 119 HOU · HOU 10% → 23% +12HOU 10% → 23%+12 pts
- Q44:14Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 128 – 119 HOU · MIN 79% → 91% +12MIN 79% → 91%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -9.5
- ML MIN +370 / HOU -485
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5
- HOU 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 69.4%, market 79.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -390
- MIN +390 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 109.0 – 118.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1616 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −67 | +18 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +142 Elo | HOU 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 66.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 79.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 114.820th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 109.84th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +5.07th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 115.79th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 110.75th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 29–105th of 30 |
| 25th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149326th of 30 |
| 13th of 301556 | Elo rating | 16167th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–45 | 35–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–34 | 29–41 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 36–44 | 37–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–3 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Mar 25HOU 108 @ MIN 110Picked HOU 54%Miss
- Jan 16MIN 105 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 59%Hit
- Feb 21MIN 115 @ HOU 121Picked HOU 60%Hit
- Feb 6HOU 114 @ MIN 127Picked MIN 52%Hit
- Dec 27MIN 113 @ HOU 112Picked HOU 50%Miss
- Nov 26HOU 117 @ MIN 111Picked MIN 55%Miss
- Apr 2HOU 106 @ MIN 113Picked MIN 62%Hit
- Feb 4HOU 90 @ MIN 111Picked MIN 67%Hit