Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Ayo DosunmuPoints24
- Bones HylandAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Pacers- Ethan ThompsonPoints17
- Jarace WalkerAssists5
- Jarace WalkerRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–104
- Q40.3Jarace Walker out of bounds lost ball turnover124–104
- Q420.8Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 21-foot step back jumpshot124–104
- Q439.5Joan Beringer defensive rebound122–104
- Q442.6Taelon Peter misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot122–104
- Q451.8Julian Phillips personal foul122–104
- Q41:02Julian Phillips offensive foul turnover122–104
- Q41:02Julian Phillips offensive charge122–104
- Q41:06Jalen Slawson makes 2-foot driving floating jump shot (Jay Huff assists)122–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:08Jay Huff makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)MIN 0 – 3 IND · IND 16% → 20% +4IND 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q19:28Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 6 – 7 IND · MIN 78% → 83% +4MIN 78% → 83%+4 pts
- Q18:56Mike Conley makes 28-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 9 – 7 IND · MIN 82% → 86% +4MIN 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q210:43Jaylen Clark makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 38 – 30 IND · MIN 88% → 91% +3MIN 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q21:08Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 61 – 53 IND · MIN 86% → 91% +4MIN 86% → 91%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -12.5
- ML MIN -750 / IND +525
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 68.4%, market 84.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -551
- IND +551 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 123.5 – 111.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1358 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −51 | −39 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +134 Elo | MIN 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 79.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 78.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 84.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 112.527th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 120.726th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.3 | Margin | −8.226th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 109.226th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 117.226th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 102.69th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 10th of 3021–17 | Road vs home | 11–2728th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 30 |
| 13th of 301553 | Elo rating | 135824th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–44 | 37–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 24–34 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 34–34 |
| Overs–unders | 35–43 | 40–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–2 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.