Charlotte Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints35
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Moussa DiabateRebounds9
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints26
- Bones HylandAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–108
- Q43.7Jaylen Clark makes 24-foot three pointer122–108
- Q411.1Xavier Tillman makes 5-foot two point shot (Sion James assists)122–105
- Q424.9Pat Connaughton offensive rebound120–105
- Q427.3Josh Green misses 25-foot three point jumper120–105
- Q448.8Joan Beringer makes alley oop dunk (Jaylen Clark assists)120–105
- Q458.2Sion James out of bounds lost ball turnover120–103
- Q41:17Zyon Pullin bad pass
turnover (Xavier Tillman steals)120–103
- Q41:26Xavier Tillman makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Sion James assists)120–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:11LaMelo Ball makes 27-foot three pointer (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 65 – 66 MIN · CHA 46% → 55% +9CHA 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q38:21Miles Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)CHA 68 – 66 MIN · CHA 55% → 64% +9CHA 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q32:30Bones Hyland makes 22-foot running jump shot (Julius Randle assists)CHA 78 – 77 MIN · MIN 29% → 40% +10MIN 29% → 40%+10 pts
- Q31:19Coby White makes 26-foot three pointerCHA 83 – 79 MIN · CHA 60% → 71% +11CHA 60% → 71%+11 pts
- Q358.9Grant Williams makes 24-foot running jump shot (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 86 – 79 MIN · CHA 71% → 81% +9CHA 71% → 81%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -4.5
- ML CHA -185 / MIN +154
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -4
- CHA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- CHA: Elo 66.4%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- CHA -165
- MIN +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 115.5 – 111.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1600 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +65 | −50 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +118 Elo | CHA 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 117.67th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 114.111th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.1 | Margin | +3.510th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 114.214th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 110.85th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.3 | Pace | 102.410th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 9th of 3021–17 | Road vs home | 25–149th of 30 |
| 30th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301600 | Elo rating | 156112th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–29 | 34–43 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–12 | 24–34 |
| Underdog | 27–17 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 31–47 | 34–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–4 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.