Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Terrence Shannon Jr.Points33
- Terrence Shannon Jr.Assists5
- Joan BeringerRebounds8
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints20
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Goga BitadzeRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–132
- Q44.0shot clock turnover120–132
- Q429.1Joe Ingles makes 29-foot three pointer120–132
- Q438.1Alex Morales makes 15-foot pullup jump shot117–132
- Q447.5Magic offensive team rebound117–130
- Q448.1Joan Beringer blocks Alex Morales's two point shot117–130
- Q41:02Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer117–130
- Q41:12Julian Phillips defensive rebound114–130
- Q41:20Moritz Wagner misses 27-foot three point jumper114–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:27Bones Hyland makes 22-foot three point jumper (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)MIN 32 – 26 ORL · MIN 29% → 36% +6MIN 29% → 36%+6 pts
- Q11:05Jevon Carter makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)MIN 32 – 29 ORL · ORL 64% → 70% +6ORL 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q23:55Naz Reid makes 23-foot running jump shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 50 – 51 ORL · MIN 19% → 25% +6MIN 19% → 25%+6 pts
- Q310:44Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Clark assists)MIN 62 – 65 ORL · MIN 16% → 22% +6MIN 16% → 22%+6 pts
- Q39:06Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 64 – 70 ORL · ORL 78% → 84% +6ORL 78% → 84%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -11.5
- ML MIN +360 / ORL -470
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5
- ORL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- ORL: Elo 69.6%, market 79.1%
- Fair odds
- ORL -379
- MIN +379 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 111.0 – 122.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −102 | +23 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +144 Elo | ORL 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 71.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 79.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 115.516th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 115.213th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.5 | Margin | +0.317th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 112.519th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 112.213th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 101.912th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 8th of 3022–17 | Road vs home | 24–1512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150215th of 30 |
| 13th of 301562 | Elo rating | 150617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−102 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–44 | 36–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–34 | 20–28 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders | 35–44 | 43–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–2 ORL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.